This article, “Somalia’s Situation Resembles a Plane Crash without a Recovered Black Box,” argues that Somalia’s failure to rebuild as a functioning state since 1991 stems from the lack of a shared national identity and social contract among its major clans.
The author, Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad, compares Somalia’s situation to an airplane crash where the “black box” (the core reason for the collapse) was never recovered.
Here’s a breakdown:
-
Main Argument: Clan loyalty is stronger than national loyalty, preventing the formation of a unified state. The absence of trust and agreement on power-sharing among clans fuels constant conflict and instability.
-
Supporting Points:
-
Clanism: Political decisions are based on clan interests, not national interests.
-
Colonial Legacy: Weak institutions inherited from Italian colonialism exacerbated the problem.
-
Power Struggles: Clans constantly fight over control of key positions and resources.
-
Lack of Trust: Absence of trust leads to fragmentation and violence.
-
-
Rebuttal of Alternative Explanations:
-
Economic Collapse: This is a consequence of the lack of a unified government, not the root cause.
-
Terrorism (Al-Shabaab): This is a symptom of the power vacuum and clan divisions, not the primary cause.
-
-
Foreign Interference: External actors exploit Somalia’s internal divisions.
-
Solution: The author suggests that Somalia should learn from Somaliland, which has successfully built a stable state through inclusive reconciliation, strong national identity, and democratic governance. However, this would require Somalia to accept the end of their union.
The complete piece is as follows:
Somalia’s Situation Resembles a Plane Crash without a Recovered Black Box
By Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad
The political, economic, and social infrastructures of Somalia have remained in a state of profound collapse for the past 35 years, tracing back to the downfall of Mohamed Siad Barre’s regime in 1991. The situation can be compared to the crash of an aircraft whose black box was never recovered, meaning that the true causes, trajectory, and sequence of failures remain largely unknown or insufficiently examined. Without this “black box,” the country has operated without a clear understanding of the fundamental factors that triggered its collapse.
In the decades that followed, Somalia descended into violent fragmentation, civil war, entrenched clan rivalries, warlordism, and later the rise of extremist groups filled the vacuum left by the state’s disintegration. The absence of effective central government resulted in the breakdown of essential public services, the destruction of national institutions, mass displacement, economic paralysis, and a humanitarian crisis that has persisted for over three decades.
What makes this collapse even more striking is the limited academic attention given to the deeper causes affecting the society of Somalia, the former Italian colonial territory. Despite the region’s once-promising economic foundations and modern infrastructure under Siad Barre administration, there has been a notable lack of comprehensive, unbiased research examining why this societal structure proved so vulnerable to state failure.
As a political analyst who has extensively studied Somalia’s modern history, societal dynamics, and political behavior, I have undertaken detailed research to identify the true root causes of the prolonged crisis. My findings indicate that the collapse cannot be attributed to a single factor, but rather to a complex interaction of:
- Historical grievances and unresolved clan-based tensions, entrenched over generations.
- External interference by regional and international actors pursuing strategic and geopolitical interests.
- Weak institutional foundations, inherited from the colonial era and worsened by post-independence power struggles.
- Socio-economic inequalities and the concentration of political power within narrow elite networks.
- Ideological shifts, including the rise of radical groups that filled the governance void.
Understanding these interlinked root causes is essential for designing sustainable solutions. Without a clear and honest examination of why the Somali state collapsed so dramatically—and why it has struggled to recover, efforts to build stability will remain superficial and ineffective.
Below is a clear, objective, and deeply analytical explanation of the main root cause of why Somalia has failed to rebuild a functional state from 1991 to today. It is based on political science, historical analysis, and observed realities on the ground.
The Main Root Cause: No Shared National Identity or Social Contract
The core reason Somalia has been unable to rebuild its state since 1991 is the absence of a shared national identity and a unified social contract among the major clans and political groups in South Somalia.
Everything else, terrorism, corruption, foreign interference, weak institutions, is a symptom. The people do not agree on how to live together, who should rule, or what the nation should be.
Why Somalia Has No Shared National Identity
- Clan loyalty is stronger than national loyalty
In Somalia (especially in the south), political decisions are driven by clan calculations, not national interest. People trust their clan elders more than the government.
This makes building a modern state impossible.
- The Italian colonial legacy created weak social cohesion
The former Italian colony lacked strong institutions, a strong legal system, and a unified political culture. After independence, this weakness became fatal.
- No agreement on power-sharing
Since 1991, every attempt to rebuild the state collapsed because the major clans fight over:
- who becomes president
- who controls the army
- who controls the Parliament
- who controls the ports, taxes, and foreign aid
No one accepts losing power peacefully.
- Zero trust between clans
When trust is absent, the result is:
- militias
- warlords
- clan protectionism
- parallel administrations
A nation cannot be built without mutual trust.
The Root Cause Manifested: Permanent Power Struggle
Somalia after 1991 became a battlefield of:
- Hawiye vs. Darood
- Sub-clans of Hawiye vs. each other
- Sub-clans of Darood vs. each other
- Rahanweyn vs. others
- Minority clans marginalized
- Warlords vs. warlords
- Militias vs. militias
- Islamists vs. secular
- FGS vs. Federal States
- Local militias vs. the national army
This is not a political system; it is fragmented without national purpose.
Foreign Interference Succeeded Because Somalia Has No Internal Unity
Countries like:
- Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea, Qatar, Turkey, UAE, China, Djibouti & Others interfere because Somalis themselves are divided and vulnerable.
You cannot protect national sovereignty without internal unity.
Economic Collapse Is Not the Root Cause, It Is the Consequence
Somalia’s economy collapsed because:
- No government, No institutions, No taxation ,No national currency stability ,Militias control local resources ,Aid is stolen or politicized
This is not the root. It is the outcome of no shared national purpose.
Terrorism (Al-Shabaab) Is a Symptom, Not the Root Cause
Al-Shabaab succeeded because:
- there was no government to stop them
- clans disagree on fighting them
- some clans use Al-Shabaab for political advantage
- corruption creates space for extremist groups
- Business people support them
Summary: The Root Cause of Somalia’s Failure
Somalia has failed to rebuild its country because the people of South- Somalia have no unified national identity, no mutual trust, and no shared social contract. Clan loyalty overrides national loyalty, making stable government impossible.
This is the “black box” of Somalia’s collapse.
Somalia Must Learn State-Building from the Republic of Somaliland
For 35 years, Somalia has struggled to rebuild a functioning state. Despite foreign troops, international conferences, and billions in aid, the country remains unstable and divided. In contrast, the Republic of Somaliland, independent since 1991 has built peace, democracy, and effective governance without recognition and with minimal external support.
Somaliland’s success comes from homegrown state-building:
- inclusive clan-based reconciliation
- grassroots security forces funded by the people
- strong national identity and social cohesion
- rule of law and functioning institutions
- democratic elections and peaceful transitions of power
Meanwhile, Somalia continues to face clan rivalry, extremist threats, political corruption, and a lack of trust between communities, problems that cannot be solved through foreign intervention alone.
Somaliland can be a model for Somalia, but only when Somalia accepts that the union ended in 1991 and begins a new chapter based on equality and respect.
