This article explores the escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa, with a focus on the geopolitical ramifications of recent military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, set against the broader conflict involving Ethiopia. The Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement, which Somaliland has not fully honored and is disputed by Somalia, is identified as the immediate catalyst for these tensions.
By Gulaid Yusuf Idaan
Abstract
This article explores the escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa, with a focus on the geopolitical ramifications of recent military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, set against the broader conflict involving Ethiopia. The Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement, which Somaliland has not fully honored and is disputed by Somalia, is identified as the immediate catalyst for these tensions. This study delves into how this situation has heightened the ongoing rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia, especially concerning their strategic interests in Somalia and the wider region. It also examines Egypt’s historical difficulties in supporting faltering Arab nations, which raises doubts about the effectiveness of its involvement in Somalia and the potential for yet another strategic miscalculation.
Introduction
The Horn of Africa, a region of considerable strategic importance, is currently witnessing growing tensions among key regional players, particularly Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia. Central to this conflict is the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement, which has triggered a significant realignment of alliances and exacerbated long-standing rivalries, especially between Egypt and Ethiopia. This article aims to examine the role of the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement in sparking these tensions, focusing on its impact on Egypt’s military collaboration with Somalia and the broader implications for regional stability. The analysis also considers Egypt’s historical difficulties in effectively supporting other Arab nations, raising questions about its ability to influence the outcome of the current conflict.
The Somaliland-Ethiopia Agreement: A Catalyst for Conflict
The current volatile situation in the Horn of Africa can be traced back to the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement, which has emerged as a significant source of contention. Somaliland, a region that has enjoyed de facto autonomy for over three decades without international recognition, entered into an agreement with Ethiopia to lease coastal land in exchange for potential recognition of its independence. This agreement was viewed as a strategic move by Somaliland to gain international legitimacy by leveraging its geographic position to attract Ethiopian interests.
However, Somaliland’s failure to fully adhere to the terms of this agreement has led to significant friction, particularly with Somalia. The Somali government, which considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory, vehemently opposes the agreement, viewing it as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity. Somalia’s refusal to honor the agreement has further exacerbated the situation, leading to increased tensions with Ethiopia and creating an environment ripe for external intervention.
In response to this perceived threat, Somalia has sought to strengthen its alliances, particularly with Egypt. The alignment of Somalia with Egypt is seen as a strategic maneuver to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region, especially in light of the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). However, Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is complicated by its history of failed interventions in other collapsing Arab nations, including Libya, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Sudan. This historical context raises concerns about Egypt’s ability to effectively support Somalia, suggesting the potential for yet another strategic failure.
Egypt-Somalia Military Cooperation: Strategic Maneuvers and Potential Pitfalls
In reaction to the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement and the ensuing tensions, Egypt has taken significant steps to bolster its military ties with Somalia. Recently, Egypt delivered military equipment to Somalia, marking the first such aid in over four decades and signaling its intent to strengthen its influence in the Horn of Africa. This move is further underscored by the signing of a joint defense agreement, formalizing the military alliance between Egypt and Somalia.
However, the strategic value of this military cooperation is questionable, given Egypt’s historical struggles in effectively supporting other collapsing states in the Arab world. Egypt’s involvement in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Sudan has been characterized by limited success and, in many cases, outright failure. These precedents suggest that Egypt may face similar challenges in Somalia, where the complexities of local and regional dynamics could thwart its efforts to exert influence and stabilize the situation.
Ethiopia, aware of these potential pitfalls, has responded strongly to Egypt’s involvement in Somalia. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Somalia of colluding with external forces, particularly Egypt, to destabilize Ethiopia. The timing of Egypt’s military aid, coinciding with the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to a new peacekeeping mission, has further heightened tensions. Ethiopian officials fear that this new mission, with Egyptian involvement, could undermine Ethiopia’s strategic interests in Somalia and contribute to regional instability.
The Broader Geopolitical Context: Ethiopia’s Strategic Challenges
Ethiopia’s concerns extend beyond the immediate impact of Egypt’s military cooperation with Somalia. The broader geopolitical context includes Ethiopia’s attempts to establish a naval base in Somaliland, a move that has raised suspicions among regional actors, including Egypt. The naval base is part of Ethiopia’s broader strategy to secure access to the sea and assert its influence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden—regions of significant strategic importance.
The establishment of a naval base in Somaliland represents a significant shift in Ethiopia’s military strategy, traditionally focused on land-based operations. However, Egypt perceives this move as a direct threat to its own strategic interests, particularly in the context of the GERD dispute. The historical failure of Egypt to support other collapsing states raises doubts about its ability to effectively counter Ethiopia’s naval ambitions in the region.
Compounding these external challenges are Ethiopia’s internal struggles. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government faces rising opposition and ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Tigray region, which have strained the country’s resources and attention. The decision to relocate military bases closer to Somalia is seen as a precautionary measure to counter potential threats from Egypt’s growing presence in Somalia. However, this move also reflects the broader challenges facing Ethiopia as it seeks to balance its internal security concerns with its regional ambitions.
The Role of the African Union and International Mediation
The African Union (AU) plays a crucial role in the ongoing conflict, particularly as the ATMIS mandate nears its end. The transition to a new peacekeeping mission, potentially involving Egypt, is a key concern for Ethiopia, which fears that its influence in Somalia could be diminished. The AU has been involved in mediation efforts, but the situation remains precarious, with both Egypt and Ethiopia pursuing policies that could lead to further instability.
The AU’s mediation efforts are complicated by the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. Egypt’s strategic interest in Somalia, coupled with Ethiopia’s attempts to expand its influence in Somaliland, has made it difficult for the AU to broker a lasting resolution. The failure of Somaliland to adhere to its agreement with Ethiopia has further complicated these efforts, creating a volatile situation that could easily escalate into a broader conflict.
International actors, including Turkey, have also attempted to mediate the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland agreement. However, the complexity of the conflict, coupled with the competing interests of regional and international actors, has made it difficult to achieve a sustainable resolution. Given Egypt’s historical track record of intervention in other Arab nations, there is skepticism about its ability to play a constructive role in this context, raising the specter of yet another strategic failure.
Conclusion
The ongoing tensions in the Horn of Africa, driven by the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement and the subsequent military cooperation between Egypt and Somalia, pose significant risks to regional stability. The failure of Somaliland to adhere to its agreement with Ethiopia has exacerbated existing rivalries, particularly between Egypt and Ethiopia, and has the potential to ignite further conflicts in the region.
Moreover, Egypt’s involvement in Somalia, given its historical struggles in effectively supporting collapsing Arab states, raises serious concerns about the potential for another strategic failure. As both Egypt and Ethiopia continue to maneuver for strategic advantage, the international community must remain vigilant and engage in active diplomacy to prevent an escalation of the conflict and to support efforts toward sustainable peace in the Horn of Africa.
The implications of this conflict extend beyond the immediate region, affecting the broader geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Nile Basin. A comprehensive and coordinated approach, involving regional and international actors, is essential to address the underlying causes of the conflict and to promote long-term stability in the Horn of Africa. Without such an approach, the region risks descending into further instability, with potentially devastating consequences for all involved.
Gulaid Yusuf Idaan
Gulaid Yusuf Idaan is a distinguished senior lecturer at universities in Somaliland, specializing in diplomacy, politics, and international relations in the Horn of Africa. His independent scholarly work and extensive publications have established him as a leading expert in regional dynamics and diplomatic relations. In addition to his significant professional contributions, Gulaid is an aspiring university lecturer, holding multiple Master’s Degrees in International Law and Diplomacy, and International Relations.
