Brian McDonald’s article, “Somaliland, a Nation Denied No More: A Strategy to Finally Get Diplomatic Recognition,” outlines a strategy for Somaliland to achieve diplomatic recognition from a significant number of countries by 2029.
It argues that Somaliland meets the criteria for statehood under the Montevideo Convention and has a right to self-determination.
The strategy involves a phased approach, targeting specific countries in waves based on their strategic interests and potential benefits from recognizing Somaliland.
Here’s a concise breakdown:
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Somaliland’s Case: The author argues that Somaliland deserves recognition due to its stability, democratic governance, economic development, and fulfillment of the Montevideo Convention criteria for statehood. They also highlight its historical independence and the right to self-determination.
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The Strategy: The proposed strategy involves lobbying key countries in waves to secure recognition, bypassing international forums where Somalia could obstruct progress.
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Wave 1 (July 2026): Target the UAE, Ethiopia, Kenya, USA, Israel, and Bahrain due to their existing ties, strategic interests, and economic investments in Somaliland.
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Wave 2 (January 2027): Leverage the support of Wave 1 countries to lobby Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Zambia, Botswana, Malawi, Kosovo, East Timor, and Norway.
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Wave 3 (July 2027): Target nations who value Horn stability and Red Sea security: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Morocco, Argentina, Guatemala, and Paraguay.
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Wave 4 (2028 onwards): Continue lobbying countries like Denmark, Sweden, Ghana, Senegal, and India that support democracy and stability in the Horn of Africa.
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Neutralizing Opposition: Counteract opposition from Somalia, Turkey, and Qatar through strong alliances, diaspora campaigns, and strategic incentives. Address Egypt’s concerns by offering piracy intelligence and appealing to China’s trade interests.
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Kosovo as a model: The article draws parallels with Kosovo’s successful pursuit of recognition as a template for Somaliland.
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Importance of avoiding premature applications to international bodies: The strategy advises against applying for membership in organizations where Somalia or its allies could block progress.
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Economic and strategic incentives: The strategy suggests offering economic and security benefits to potential recognizing countries, such as access to Berbera Port and intelligence on piracy.
In essence, the article presents a detailed, politically astute roadmap for Somaliland to achieve its long-sought goal of international recognition, emphasizing strategic partnerships, targeted lobbying, and proactive management of potential opposition.
The following article was exclusive to Saxafi Media:
Somaliland, a Nation Denied No More: A Strategy to Finally Get Diplomatic Recognition
By Brian McDonald
In the Horn of Africa, where violence and lawlessness rage, Somaliland is like an island of peace and stability. Its indigenous clans have been living there for thousands of years in their ancestral lands, as proven by the 5,000–9,000-year-old rock art of Laas Geel. They created together a beautiful, rich culture as seen in the rich oral poetry tradition.
Since Somaliland declared independence in 1991, it has built out of the chaos a stable, relatively safe, and thriving democracy with regular elections, a $1-2 billion economy. It has developed Berbera Port, good for over $500 million in trade, and it has its own currency, passports, and security forces protecting it from Al-Shabaab.
As someone inspired by Somaliland’s resilience, I see this as an example of what determined people with a vision can achieve. Yet, the absence of diplomatic recognition limits its trade and global ties, leaving Somaliland a state in all but name.
Somalia’s government, controlling less than 10% of its claimed territory, lacks the authority to govern Somaliland, despite its insistence. Somaliland’s people deserve recognition, and a bold strategy can secure 30-40 countries’ acknowledgment by 2029, kickstarting its rightful place on the world stage. Somaliland fulfills the 1933 Montevideo Convention’s criteria for statehood, the international legal standard for defining a state:
- Permanent Population: Somaliland has a permanent population of 6.2 million people
- Defined Territory: Its borders are clear and internationally recognized from the time of its independence in 1960.
- Government: Somaliland has a stable working government.
- Capacity for International Relations: Somaliland has ties with countries like the UAE and Ethiopia, managing trade and security agreements, so it fully meets this criterion too.
Somaliland’s case is further strengthened by the fact that in 1960, it was for a short time an independent state, recognized by 35 nations. As indigenous people, Somalilanders hold the right to self-determination under the UN Charter. But that right is ignored by the international community in favor of existing borders, even though existing borders are not a higher right than the right to self-determination. To choose borders over the right to self-determination is a political choice, not a legal one. Somalia’s chaos undermines its claim over Somaliland’s success. The African Union’s 2005 report deemed Somaliland’s case “unique.”
This barrier or border bias can be overcome with the right strategy. Kosovo, a small state in Europe that became independent after the former country of Yugoslavia fell apart, has proven it can be done with a keen strategy, and it has received over 100 recognitions without needing UN membership or membership of other international bodies.
Somaliland can pursue a wave-based strategy, with groups of countries recognizing it simultaneously for diplomatic momentum, bypassing forums like EAC, IGAD, AU, UN, Arab League, and OIC, where Somalia or its allies (Turkey, Qatar, Egypt) could obstruct. By doing it together at the same time, the countries also provide diplomatic cover for each other, as countries are way more exposed to criticism when they do it alone.
This way, you overwhelm the international community with the sheer number and economic, political, and military clout these countries have combined.
Step One: The First Wave (July 2026)
The first step is targeting countries most likely to recognize Somaliland. Here’s why these six are prime candidates:
UAE: With $442 million invested in Berbera via DP World, the UAE views Somaliland as a Red Sea ally against piracy and Houthis, safeguarding its $500 billion economy’s trade routes.
Ethiopia: Eager for a trading port and naval base per the 2024 MoU, Ethiopia relies on Berbera for 30% of its $45 billion trade, vital for its $159 billion economy.
Kenya: Frustrated by Somalia’s maritime dispute, Kenya values Somaliland’s stability and Berbera’s trade potential.
USA: After Trump’s 2020 tweet hinting at recognition, the US is likely open to it. An extra incentive could be providing a solution to the problem, the US is uncomfortable with a Chinese base in Djibouti so close to its own base there, enabling Chinese spying on its activities. The U.S. would likely be very interested if it could shift part of its Djibouti base, Camp Lemonnier (500 personnel), to Somaliland, evading Chinese surveillance for their more sensitive operations.
Israel: Seeking Red Sea security for Eilat Port and countering Houthis and piracy, and as an Abraham Accords partner of the UAE, Israel can see the value in backing Somaliland, as it also backed Kosovo.
Bahrain: Aligned with the UAE’s Red Sea priorities, Bahrain often follows its lead in foreign policy.
These nations, with a combined $2 trillion GDP and a lot of political and military might, overshadow Somalia’s objections. Lobby these countries separately, and then with the willing countries, hold a summit to secure multiple recognitions at the same time, igniting momentum.
Step Two: The Second Wave (January 2027)
With these powerful countries on board, Somaliland can lobby more countries. Kenya can lobby some EAC members like Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, who admire Somaliland’s stability and trade. The U.S. and Israel can lobby Zambia, Botswana, and Malawi, drawn to Somaliland’s $500 million livestock exports. Kosovo and East Timor, empathetic to the recognition struggles they faced, are likely allies. Norway, reliant on Red Sea trade (Maersk’s $50 billion), aligns with U.S. and UAE anti-piracy goals and its human rights-driven Kosovo recognition. These nine recognitions bring the total to 15.
Step Three: The Third Wave (July 2027)
Somaliland will next lobby nations that value Horn stability and Red Sea security: countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Morocco, Argentina, Guatemala, and Paraguay. Saudi Arabia values safe shipping given its own vast trade. Oman and Kuwait prioritize safe shipping via Berbera patrols. Morocco, via the Abraham Accords and Western Sahara precedent, shares self-determination values. Argentina, Guatemala, and Paraguay follow U.S./Israel cues. These seven recognitions reach 22.
Step Four: The 4th Wave and growing momentum (2028-beyond)
A fourth wave can lobby countries like Denmark, Sweden, Ghana, Senegal, India, and others, countries that support democracy and stability in the Horn of Africa, and who also, for the most part, supported Kosovo. So these are countries not afraid to go against the international community, who favor existing borders over indigenous rights. This can gain Somaliland possibly 30-40 recognitions by 2029.
More waves will build on this success and expand recognition to more countries. Once a solid majority of African Union members have recognized Somaliland, it could apply for observer status and then full membership, but until a sure victory is secured, it should avoid applying to deny Somalia any diplomatic wins, as any Somali diplomatic win can break the momentum of countries recognizing Somaliland. For the same reason, Somaliland must steer clear of international bodies where Somalia or its allies hold a veto or a majority is uncertain.
Neutralizing Opposition
Somalia, Turkey, and Qatar will likely resist Somaliland’s recognition efforts. Somalia’s government claims Somaliland as its territory and uses its seats and the bias in favor of existing borders in the AU and UN to block progress. Turkey and Qatar are Somali allies and will likely back this claim by lobbying the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, a 57-nation Muslim group, and using Qatar’s Al Jazeera to spread stories advocating against Somaliland’s statehood.
Somaliland can counter this propaganda campaign by rallying allies like the UAE, Ethiopia, and the U.S., who have such influence and economic and military power that it overpowers Somalia’s objections. And the UAE and Saudi Arabia can make Somaliland’s case in the OIC, highlighting Somaliland’s stability as opposed to Somalia’s chaos and despair.
Somaliland’s diaspora can drive a powerful X campaign (#SomalilandSelfDetermination), sharing stories of Hargeisa’s markets and Berbera’s success to overshadow Al Jazeera’s narratives and urge global support.
Egypt may oppose recognition because it supports Somalia to balance Ethiopia, its rival in Nile River water disputes, and might worry that Somaliland’s ties with Ethiopia could boost Addis Ababa’s power. Somaliland can ease Egypt’s fears by offering piracy intelligence from Berbera Port to protect the Suez Canal, which earns Egypt $9 billion a year. The U.S., giving Egypt $2 billion in aid, can encourage Cairo to stay neutral by stressing this shared benefit.
China, wary of recognizing new states because of its own issues like Tibet, might resist to avoid setting an example. Somaliland can appeal to China’s trade goals, positioning Berbera as a key stop in its Belt and Road trade network, encouraging Beijing to remain neutral, and it can also share with China intel on piracy activity as an incentive, as China is protective of its shipping trade through the Red Sea. These steps—strong allies, diaspora-led campaigns, and smart incentives—can clear the path for Somaliland’s recognition.
Conclusion
Somaliland’s leaders can adapt Kosovo’s path to craft their own recognition strategy, securing their rightful place in the world. Somaliland will then no longer be a nation denied. After rising from the chaos to build such a stable democratic society and country, its rich ancient cultures of its clans, and strategic value demand recognition.
By following this strategy, Somaliland can reshape its future, proving that a people forged by millennia will no longer be denied. The time to act is now, make Somaliland’s voice heard.
Brian McDonald is a columnist and geopolitical analyst based in Europe, who also spent years in Eastern Africa and the Middle East. He posts in various publications on current events and engages weekly in live geopolitical discourse, joining X Live Spaces. He holds an MA in global governance, politics, and security. You can follow him on X: 
