The Berbera Axis is emerging as a powerful strategic alignment linking Somaliland, Israel, Ethiopia and the UAE around one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. As Red Sea tensions rise, Berbera is becoming a focal point for security cooperation, trade expansion, intelligence operations and geopolitical competition across the Horn of Africa
By The Analytica Today
In late 2025, Israel made a bold diplomatic move by becoming the first United Nations member state to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent sovereign nation. This decision, announced on December 26, 2025, opened new avenues for cooperation between Jerusalem and Hargeisa.
Among the most discussed elements is Israel’s reported interest in gaining naval and military access to the strategic port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden.
Recent reports suggest this could eventually include deployment options for Israel’s advanced Dolphin-class submarines. While these developments reflect real strategic calculations, official confirmations remain limited, and Somaliland authorities have pushed back against claims of an imminent military base.
Berbera’s geography makes it highly attractive. Located directly across from Yemen, the port sits near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
This position allows effective monitoring of Houthi rebel activities in Yemen and broader Iranian influence in the region. For Israel, facing repeated Houthi attacks on shipping and its territory amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis, a southern foothold offers a valuable flank for intelligence, surveillance, and potential naval operations.
Ethiopia is also part of this evolving equation. As a landlocked country seeking reliable access to the sea, Ethiopia has shown growing interest in Berbera Port, investing in trade and transport links that connect its economy to the facility.
The port has already undergone significant upgrades, driven by investments from the United Arab Emirates and operational management by DP World. Modern cargo facilities, expanded naval berths, and the nearby Berbera International Airport home to one of the longest runways in the Horn of Africa have increased the strategic value of the area.
Reports suggest that discussions involving Israeli access could include logistics support, intelligence cooperation, training activities, and even a limited naval presence, raising broader geopolitical questions for countries across the Horn of Africa.
A German defense publication recently highlighted the potential for the Israeli Navy to deploy its German-built Dolphin-class submarines from Berbera. Israel operates several Dolphin-class vessels with more advanced variants incoming, known for their stealth, long-range capabilities, air-independent propulsion in newer models, and suitability for special operations.
These submarines are central to Israel’s maritime deterrence and second-strike options. Basing or forward-deploying those in Somaliland could extend operational reach into the Indian Ocean and southern Red Sea without relying solely on home ports or lengthy transits through the Suez Canal.
However, the situation is nuanced. Somaliland’s Defense Minister Mohamed Yusuf Ali stated in June 2026 that there are no Israeli military bases or ongoing negotiations for one. He acknowledged Israeli support in training Somaliland’s police and military forces but described base rumors as unfounded.
Somaliland’s president has similarly indicated no current plans while leaving future possibilities open. Israel itself has historically preferred discreet access arrangements, intelligence sharing, and logistical rights over large permanent overseas bases.
This emerging partnership fits into a broader “Berbera Axis” involving Israel, the UAE, and Ethiopia. Ethiopia seeks reliable Red Sea access, while the UAE has poured resources into Berbera’s development.
For Somaliland, which has operated as a de facto independent state since 1991 but lacks widespread international recognition, ties with Israel bring economic investment, security cooperation, and diplomatic leverage. Somaliland has opened an embassy in Jerusalem, and high-level visits continue.
Regional reactions have been sharply negative in some quarters. Somalia strongly condemns the arrangement, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty over Somaliland and a destabilizing move that could internationalize conflicts.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran-aligned groups also express concern over shifting power dynamics. Critics worry that an Israeli presence could provoke more Houthi or proxy attacks, turning the Horn of Africa into another theater of confrontation.
For Israel, the move aligns with efforts to counter Iran’s regional network and secure maritime routes vital for trade and energy. It also echoes historical, albeit limited, engagement with the Horn of Africa.
Analysts note that any Israeli naval footprint would likely emphasize intelligence, drone operations, and occasional submarine or surface vessel visits rather than a massive base. Satellite imagery and infrastructure reports show ongoing upgrades at Berbera that could accommodate such activities.
Challenges remain significant. Logistical hurdles for submarine operations far from Israel, political sensitivities, and the unresolved Somalia-Somaliland dispute could slow progress. International law and the “One Somalia” policy still held by many countries, including the United States, add complexity, though the 2026 U.S. NDAA has shown openness to greater engagement in the region.
In summary, while reports of Israel actively seeking naval access including potential Dolphin-class submarine deployment at Berbera reflect genuine strategic interest and exploratory talks, they remain partly speculative. No full-scale military base has been confirmed, and Somaliland stresses training and economic ties over permanent foreign basing.
As regional dynamics evolve amid Red Sea tensions, Berbera could become a pivotal node in the contest for influence in the Horn of Africa. The coming months will reveal whether these ambitions translate into concrete arrangements or remain at the level of strategic signaling.
