Did Ethiopia Betray Somaliland? Analyzing the Ankara Declaration and Ethiopia’s Regional Strategy
Claims of Ethiopia betraying Somaliland overlook the complexities of regional diplomacy.
This detailed video analysis explores the controversy surrounding Ethiopia’s recent agreements with Somalia and their implications for Somaliland. Was Somaliland sidelined in the Ankara Declaration? What about Ethiopia’s broader strategy for regional peace and access to the sea? And how is Somaliland’s new president recalibrating its diplomatic ties?
Ethiopia’s recent diplomatic developments, particularly the Ankara Declaration signed with Somalia’s federal government, have ignited debates about the country’s intentions toward Somaliland. Many Somalilanders question whether Ethiopia’s actions signal betrayal or align with a broader regional strategy. This analysis examines Ethiopia’s agreements with Somalia and Somaliland, the implications for regional dynamics, and how Somaliland’s leadership is recalibrating its approach to diplomacy.
The controversy began with a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland. This agreement promised Ethiopia access to Somaliland’s strategic ports and a potential sea route for a naval base. At the same time, Somaliland expected economic partnerships, including stakes in Ethiopian Airlines or Ethio Telecom.
However, Somaliland’s then-president, Muse Bihi, framed the MoU as a step toward Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland’s independence—a claim not supported by the actual terms. Analysts argue that Bihi misrepresented the agreement to rally nationalist support during a contentious election period. Given its irreversible and politically sensitive nature, this strategy backfired as the public realized recognition was never on the table.
The Ankara Declaration further highlighted Ethiopia’s delicate balancing act. Signed between Ethiopia and Somalia, the agreement focused on ensuring Ethiopia’s sea access without infringing on Somalia’s sovereignty. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized that Ethiopia’s actions aimed to foster regional stability and cooperation rather than provoke conflict. Observers suggest the declaration could lead to Ethiopia leasing Somali ports, similar to its arrangements with Djibouti while avoiding ownership or naval bases. This shift has raised concerns in Somaliland, as it appears their interests may have been sidelined in favor of Ethiopia’s broader strategy.
Under Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro), the region’s diplomatic approach has shifted from lofty ambitions to practical cooperation. Irro has focused on strengthening economic ties with Ethiopia while maintaining Somaliland’s quest for international recognition. However, these efforts face challenges as Ethiopia deepens its relationship with Somalia’s federal government, further complicating Somaliland’s aspirations.
The narrative of Ethiopia betraying Somaliland oversimplifies the complex dynamics of regional diplomacy. Ethiopia’s legitimate pursuit of secure sea access and regional peace aligns with its broader strategy, which prioritizes negotiation over unilateral action. For Somaliland, the path forward lies in transparent communication, realistic expectations, and practical negotiations. Miscommunication and political posturing have hindered progress in the past, underscoring the need for a pragmatic and collaborative approach to achieve long-term goals.
