A new Emirates Policy Center (EPC) analysis says Ethiopia and Somaliland are likely to deepen economic and maritime cooperation centered on Berbera Port, while formal recognition remains unlikely in the near term due to regional and diplomatic constraints
HARGEISA — Ethiopia and Somaliland are expected to gradually expand economic and maritime cooperation centered on Berbera Port, even as formal diplomatic recognition remains unlikely in the near future, according to a new analysis published by the Emirates Policy Center (EPC).
The report, titled “Between Maritime Access and Recognition: Geopolitical Implications of Rapprochement Between Ethiopia and Somaliland,” argues that Addis Ababa’s long-standing search for reliable sea access and Somaliland’s pursuit of greater international legitimacy are creating conditions for closer cooperation despite persistent political and legal obstacles.
Published on July 1 by the Abu Dhabi-based independent think tank’s Horn of Africa Studies Unit, the report concludes that practical economic cooperation is far more likely than sovereign arrangements or formal recognition in the foreseeable future.
“The most likely scenario in the foreseeable future is the gradual expansion of economic and logistical cooperation between Ethiopia and Somaliland, without sovereign arrangements or formal recognition,” the report states.
Berbera Increasingly Viewed as Strategic Alternative
The EPC analysis argues that the growing geopolitical importance of the Red Sea and international shipping routes has significantly increased the strategic value of Somaliland’s Port of Berbera.
According to the report, Ethiopia’s continued dependence on Djibouti for maritime trade has strengthened Addis Ababa’s interest in diversifying its access to international ports.
Analysts say Berbera offers Ethiopia an opportunity to reduce logistical vulnerabilities while enhancing its commercial connectivity with global markets.
The report notes that Somaliland is increasingly presenting itself as a stable economic partner rather than framing discussions solely around diplomatic recognition.
Foreign Minister’s Remarks Signal Pragmatic Approach
The study highlights recent comments by Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adam (“Bakal”), who said Ethiopia has a legitimate need for sea access and expressed Hargeisa’s willingness to discuss expanded cooperation.
Rather than calling for immediate Ethiopian recognition, the report says Somaliland’s current diplomatic strategy emphasizes long-term partnerships based on trade, logistics and regional integration.
“The real value lies not only in potential recognition, but in positioning Somaliland as an indispensable partner in regional arrangements concerning ports, trade and logistical corridors,” the report argues.
According to EPC researchers, this reflects a more pragmatic approach than the controversial 2024 Memorandum of Understanding, shifting attention toward commercially driven cooperation that may prove more politically acceptable.
Recognition Faces Significant Obstacles
Despite identifying growing opportunities, the report cautions that several major challenges continue to constrain deeper political agreements.
Among them are Somaliland’s lack of international recognition, Somalia’s continued opposition to bilateral arrangements involving Hargeisa, and the political implications of the Ankara Declaration between Ethiopia and Somalia.
The report also points to the complex regional balance in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea, where competing international interests have intensified strategic competition over ports, maritime routes and logistics infrastructure.
Three Possible Futures
The EPC outlines three potential trajectories for Ethiopia-Somaliland relations.
The first—and considered the most likely—envisions expanded functional cooperation focused on trade, infrastructure, logistics and greater Ethiopian use of Berbera Port without altering Somaliland’s political status.
A second scenario involves negotiations leading to a revised agreement that could eventually grant Ethiopia long-term maritime privileges and potentially pave the way toward recognition. However, researchers describe this outcome as possible but significantly less likely under current regional conditions.
The third scenario foresees prolonged political stalemate, with diplomatic constraints preventing major breakthroughs despite Ethiopia’s enduring need for maritime access.
Regional Implications
The report concludes that maritime access has evolved into one of the defining geopolitical issues in the Horn of Africa, extending well beyond bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Researchers argue that future arrangements surrounding Berbera could influence regional trade corridors, Red Sea security, economic integration and the broader balance of power across the Horn of Africa.
While political recognition remains uncertain, the report suggests that expanding commercial and logistical cooperation offers the clearest path forward for both governments.
“The future of this path will likely depend on the parties’ ability to reconcile the imperatives of economic geography with the requirements of political legitimacy,” the report concludes.
