New EUAA report highlights worsening insecurity across Somalia while Somaliland remains comparatively stable despite regional tensions
HARGEISA, Somaliland — As Somalia grapples with a renewed surge in political violence, territorial disputes and militant insurgencies, Somaliland continues to stand out as one of the Horn of Africa’s most stable territories, according to a newly released report by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).
The 137-page report, Somalia: Security Situation 2026, paints a troubling picture of a country facing deep political fragmentation, escalating militant activity and rising civilian casualties. Yet amid the turmoil, Somaliland’s core regions remain largely insulated from the insecurity affecting much of southern and central Somalia.
The report notes that while Somalia’s political environment has become “fractured and highly volatile,” Somaliland’s uncontested regions have experienced comparatively little change in territorial control during the reporting period. The assessment states that “actors and exerted territorial control remained more or less unchanged… as well as in Somaliland’s uncontested regions.”
Somalia Records Sharp Rise in Violence
The EUAA report documents a dramatic deterioration in Somalia’s overall security environment between April 2025 and March 2026.
According to data compiled from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), Somalia recorded 4,676 major security incidents and 8,753 fatalities during the reporting period. The figures represent a significant increase from the previous year, when 3,041 incidents and 7,237 fatalities were recorded.
The report attributes much of the violence to intensified fighting involving the militant group Al-Shabaab, which accounted for approximately 62 percent of all recorded political violence incidents nationwide. Clan conflicts, political rivalries and military operations against Islamic State affiliates in Puntland further contributed to instability.
“Somalia experienced a renewed cycle of political violence that resulted in a peak number of fatalities and recorded security events,” the report states.
Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan emerged as the country’s most violent regions, while Bari in Puntland witnessed heavy fighting linked to anti-Islamic State military operations.
Somaliland’s Stability Draws International Attention
The report arrives at a time when Somaliland is receiving increased international attention following its growing strategic importance in the Red Sea corridor and the diplomatic repercussions of Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025.
The EUAA notes that Israel’s recognition “further exacerbated” Somaliland’s separation from Somalia’s political project and increased tensions between the two sides.
Despite those geopolitical developments, Somaliland’s internal security situation remains markedly different from conditions in much of Somalia.
The report identifies Somaliland’s armed forces among the key regional security actors operating independently in northern territories and highlights that Somaliland continues to maintain functioning security institutions capable of controlling most of its territory.
Unlike large portions of southern Somalia, where Al-Shabaab maintains direct control or significant influence, Somaliland’s principal urban centers have remained outside the militant group’s operational reach. The EUAA found that Al-Shabaab’s most notable northern presence remains limited primarily to remote mountain areas, particularly in parts of Sanaag.
Regional Challenges Persist
While Somaliland enjoys relative stability, the report cautions that challenges remain along contested frontiers.
The security situation in the broader Sool, and Sanaag areas remains complex due to competing territorial claims involving Somaliland, SSC-Khatumo and other actors. The EUAA describes the situation in parts of Sanaag as “particularly intricate,” with various areas contested or aligned with different administrations.
The report also notes continuing concerns regarding armed group activity in mountainous areas and ongoing tensions tied to governance and territorial disputes in northern Somalia.
Humanitarian Pressures Grow
Beyond security concerns, Somalia faces a worsening humanitarian emergency.
The EUAA warns of an “intensifying humanitarian crisis” driven by drought conditions, failed rainy seasons and funding shortfalls affecting aid operations. Millions of people remain vulnerable to displacement, hunger and protection risks across the country.
As international actors reassess security partnerships in the Horn of Africa, the report underscores the growing contrast between Somaliland’s relative stability and the deteriorating security environment affecting much of Somalia.
For policymakers, investors and diplomatic partners increasingly looking toward the strategic Red Sea region, that contrast may become an increasingly important factor in shaping future engagement with Somaliland.
The EUAA report concludes that Somalia continues to face a “complex, multi-layered” security environment characterized by militant insurgencies, political fragmentation, clan conflicts and humanitarian pressures — conditions that remain far less pronounced in Somaliland’s core regions.
