Former CIA official Cameron Hudson says Somaliland’s embassy in Jerusalem highlights the territory’s growing strategic importance. He warns the United States lacks a coherent long-term strategy in the Horn of Africa as regional powers expand their influence
HARGEISA — Somaliland’s growing diplomatic engagement, highlighted by the opening of its first embassy in Jerusalem, is reshaping discussions about the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, even as questions remain about broader international recognition.
In an interview published by Horn Horizons, part of the Global Power Shifts network, on June 25, former CIA officer and U.S. National Security Council official Cameron Hudson argued that Washington is entering a period of heightened geopolitical competition in the Horn without a coherent long-term strategy, warning that regional powers are increasingly dictating events.
“My fear is that Washington is being played, because they all have long-term strategies and we don’t,” Hudson said. “For these countries, domestic policy and foreign policy are one and the same in the Horn of Africa.”
Hudson’s comments came during a wide-ranging interview with journalist Jim Stenman covering Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), regional diplomacy, Somaliland’s expanding foreign relations and the future of security across the Red Sea.
Somaliland’s Diplomatic Breakthrough
Among the developments discussed was Somaliland’s decision to establish its first foreign embassy in Jerusalem, a move Hudson described as significant for both Somaliland and Israel.
“It’s self-serving for both countries,” Hudson said. “Both are diplomatically isolated.”
He argued that the embassy represents “a diplomatic breakthrough for the Israelis as much as it is for the Somalilanders, who have been on a recognition pathway for a long time now.”
The embassy opening marks a milestone in Somaliland’s foreign policy as Hargeisa seeks to expand its international partnerships after more than three decades of self-governance.
However, Hudson noted that broader international recognition has yet to materialize.
“The fact that no one else has taken the step Israel has, by recognizing Somaliland’s independence, is to be noted,” he said. “There was a sense that many other countries were going to follow suit, including Ethiopia, possibly the United States. That hasn’t happened.”
Strategic Importance Continues to Grow
Despite the absence of wider diplomatic recognition, Hudson suggested Somaliland’s strategic significance continues to increase because of its geography and growing infrastructure.
Situated along the Gulf of Aden, Somaliland overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints connecting the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. The Port of Berbera has emerged as an increasingly important commercial and logistics hub serving both regional and international interests.
Hudson said the next major development to watch would be whether security cooperation between Israel and Somaliland expands further.
“The next thing I’m watching is whether Israel establishes some kind of military or naval presence in Somaliland, in the Red Sea region,” he said.
According to Hudson, such a development would fundamentally alter the strategic landscape.
“That would take the relationship to the next level, and it would increase tensions and competition in the region.”
He noted that Israeli officials have publicly indicated such plans are not currently under consideration but acknowledged that geopolitical circumstances can change rapidly.
Berbera’s Growing Appeal
Hudson also addressed the frequently debated question of Ethiopia’s relationship with Berbera Port.
Contrary to arguments that Ethiopia must formally recognize Somaliland before expanding commercial access, Hudson argued that recognition is not a prerequisite.
“Does Ethiopia need to recognize Somaliland to use Berbera? No,” he said.
He added that Somaliland remains open to agreements that enhance investment and international engagement.
“Any agreement for port or military access enhances its legitimacy.”
Hudson also observed that Ethiopia has sustained rapid economic growth while relying primarily on ports in neighboring countries, suggesting that Addis Ababa’s interest in additional port access is driven as much by diplomatic and strategic considerations as by economic necessity.
Washington Without a Strategy
While Somaliland formed one element of the discussion, Hudson devoted much of the interview to what he views as a broader American policy failure across the Horn of Africa.
“It’s dangerous to operate in a region this prone to conflict without a strategy,” he said.
Hudson argued that countries including Ethiopia, Egypt and Eritrea are pursuing long-term national objectives while the United States responds largely on a case-by-case basis.
“The difference is that all of these countries… have their own long-term strategies,” he said. “Washington is being opportunistic, but also short-sighted.”
He warned that the absence of a consistent U.S. approach risks diminishing Washington’s influence as regional powers strengthen their own diplomatic and security partnerships.
Regional Challenges
The interview also examined Ethiopia’s post-election political environment, the unresolved dispute surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Somalia’s political trajectory and growing security concerns across the Red Sea.
Hudson expressed concern over reports suggesting closer cooperation between al-Shabaab and Yemen’s Houthi movement, describing such a development as a potentially significant escalation for regional security.
Regarding Somalia, Hudson warned that political fragmentation appears to be accelerating.
“It feels to me like there are centrifugal forces right now pulling Somalia apart, and they’re accelerating,” he said.
Somaliland’s Expanding Role
Although Hudson remained cautious about predicting rapid international recognition, his remarks underscore Somaliland’s increasingly prominent place in regional geopolitics.
As global competition intensifies over maritime security, Red Sea shipping lanes and strategic infrastructure, Somaliland’s geographic position and expanding diplomatic outreach continue to attract growing international attention.
Whether through the development of Berbera Port, new diplomatic initiatives or future security partnerships, Somaliland is increasingly becoming a significant factor in the evolving geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa.
