The Horn of Africa’s historical, political, and economic complexities have always shaped the region’s power dynamics. Today, one of the most significant threats to this fragile stability comes from Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose policies endanger both the lives of 120 million people and the future of Somali-Ethiopian relations.
His refusal to acknowledge Somaliland’s right to self-determination and his efforts to block Ethiopia’s access to Red Sea ports could disrupt long-standing alliances, create regional animosity, and destabilize the geopolitical balance.
Historically, the Republic of Somaliland regained its 1960 independence from Somalia in 1991, establishing itself as a separate state with functioning democratic systems, peace, and economic progress. Somaliland’s strategic position, adjacent to Ethiopia, has led it to form numerous international agreements, such as with the UAE on the management of Berbera Port by DP World. This has cemented Somaliland’s relevance as a regional economic player, especially with approximately 40 million Ethiopians relying on Red Sea trade routes.
President Mohamud’s decision to obstruct these connections and impose sanctions threatens to undermine not only Somaliland’s development but also Ethiopia’s economic stability. His stance has been seen as a political miscalculation that could reignite tensions in the Horn of Africa, especially with Ethiopia—a nation crucial to the region’s stability. Ethiopia’s need for secure access to Red Sea ports has long been a cornerstone of its geopolitical strategy, and Mohamud’s attempts to deny Ethiopia this access could fuel hostility.
Further complicating matters is Somalia’s internal instability. For over three decades, Somalia has been plagued by civil war, terrorism, and external interventions. While Somaliland has enjoyed peace and progress, Somalia remains reliant on African Union forces to counter Al-Shabaab insurgencies. President Mohamud’s focus on undermining Somaliland rather than stabilizing his own war-torn nation could prolong Somalia’s struggles and prevent the formation of a stable government in the south.
The situation becomes even more precarious when considering Egypt’s role in the region. President Mohamud’s alignment with Egypt in the tripartite agreement between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia threatens to shift the regional balance. Egypt, driven by its own interests in securing access to the Nile, could use Mohamud’s policies as leverage against Ethiopia. This could spark proxy conflicts, particularly in southern Somalia, destabilizing the region and potentially setting back development efforts by decades.
The international community must act swiftly to support Somaliland’s right to self-determination and economic cooperation with Ethiopia. Somaliland’s economic ties with Ethiopia, involving the potential trade with 120 million Ethiopians, could bring prosperity to the region. It is essential to prevent jealousy, religious bias, or personal agendas from blocking such progress.
Ultimately, Mohamud’s policies risk creating a legacy of conflict and instability, harming the entire Horn of Africa. His refusal to accept Somaliland’s independence and his antagonism towards Ethiopia could ignite long-lasting hostilities, reshaping the geopolitics of the region for decades to come. For the sake of peace and development, Somaliland and Ethiopia’s partnership must be recognized and protected.
