Will this visit pave the way for genuine cooperation, or is it merely a strategic maneuver in a broader game of influence?
In a move that underscores the complex geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro of Somaliland embarked on a historic three-day state visit to Djibouti this week.
The trip, which marks his first official regional engagement since assuming office in November 2024, has ignited both hopes for regional cooperation and concerns over underlying tensions.
A Diplomatic Gesture Amidst Underlying Strains
President Irro was welcomed at Djibouti’s Ambouli International Airport by Prime Minister Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed, who described the visit as a symbol of “trust and friendship” in an often uncertain regional landscape. The high-level delegation accompanying Irro included ministers of investment, aviation, and intelligence, signaling Somaliland’s intent to deepen economic and strategic ties.
However, beneath the ceremonial veneer, diplomatic signals suggest a more nuanced picture. Notably, hours after the official welcome, Djibouti’s Prime Minister edited a Facebook post to omit references to the “Republic of Somaliland,” downgrading the visit from a formal state occasion to a subnational engagement—a move that Somaliland supporters decried as a deliberate snub to their sovereignty.
Focus on Kinship and Collaboration
The talks emphasized the nations’ “age-old ties” rooted in cultural, linguistic, and geographic proximity. A statement from Djibouti’s presidency noted the summit served to “take stock of exchanges, solidarity, and collaboration,” with President Guelleh praising Somaliland’s choice of Djibouti as President Irro’s first regional destination: “This reflects Somaliland’s esteem for our nation.”
Following the discussions, President Irro was honored at an official luncheon hosted by Guelleh, symbolizing the visit’s cordial tone.
Key Issues on the Agenda
Port Competition and Economic Rivalry
One of the central issues discussed was Somaliland’s recent port deal with Ethiopia, signed earlier this year. The agreement grants Ethiopia naval access to Berbera Port, challenging Djibouti’s longstanding dominance over Ethiopia’s trade routes and port revenues, which amount to approximately $3 billion annually. Djibouti publicly opposed the deal, fearing a significant loss of strategic and economic influence.
Trade analysts highlight the stark disparities between the ports’ efficiencies; Berbera ranks 82nd globally, while Djibouti’s port languishes at 382nd, fueling Djibouti’s economic anxiety. During the talks, President Irro and Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh discussed economic integration, but skepticism remains over the potential for cooperation given the port rivalry.
Security and Digital Connectivity
Another focal point was the security landscape and digital infrastructure. President Irro toured Djibouti Telecom’s submarine cable hub, a vital node for East Africa’s digital economy. Both nations face threats from militant groups like Al-Shabaab and piracy, emphasizing the importance of intelligence-sharing and security cooperation.
Yet, trust issues persist. Djibouti’s past support for Somaliland’s separatist factions, notably SSC-Khatumo, has cast a shadow over bilateral relations, with critics accusing Djibouti of acting more as a regional competitor than a partner.
The Quest for International Recognition
Somaliland’s 33-year effort to gain international recognition remains a contentious issue. Despite establishing a stable democracy and functioning institutions, Somaliland’s sovereignty is blocked by the African Union, which supports Somalia’s territorial integrity. Djibouti has historically opposed Somaliland’s independence; leaked diplomatic cables from 2007 reveal Guelleh’s government urging the U.S. to avoid recognizing Somaliland.
While Somaliland’s officials express optimism about strengthening regional ties, public sentiment remains wary. Social media reactions have been critical, with some users branding Djibouti’s diplomatic gestures as superficial or even dismissive.
Djibouti’s Double Game and Regional Alliances
Critics argue that Djibouti’s diplomatic posture is influenced by broader geopolitical considerations. With approximately 70% of its debt held by China, some analysts suggest Djibouti’s actions align with Chinese foreign policy objectives, particularly given Somaliland’s recognition of Taiwan in 2020.
“Djibouti’s engagement with Somaliland appears to be a calculated move, possibly reflecting Beijing’s strategic interests,” said a regional analyst. Others note that Djibouti’s rhetoric about regional unity—describing Somaliland and Djibouti as “two branches on the same tree”—may mask underlying competition for influence.
Expert Perspectives and Future Outlook
Gus Anderson, Editor-in-Chief of the Daily Euro Times, commented on the symbolism of the visit: “It’s good to see Somaliland engaging with regional powers, but the absence of Somaliland’s flag during the visit underscores the unresolved question of recognition. Flags are a matter of pride and sovereignty, not just protocol.”
Rashid Abdi, a researcher specializing in the Horn of Africa, emphasized the strategic importance of the visit: “President Irro’s choice to visit Djibouti first was prudent, given the importance of the Red Sea corridor. Reassuring Djibouti is crucial, but a genuine partnership requires more than diplomatic smiles.”
Looking ahead, President Irro’s next stop is Ethiopia, where a major trade deal is anticipated by year’s end. While the visit to Djibouti is largely symbolic, it tests whether economic pragmatism can override political rivalry in a region fraught with competing interests.
Delegations Reflect Strategic Priorities
President Irro’s delegation underscored Somaliland’s commitment to multifaceted engagement, including:
– Kadar Houssein Abdi, Minister of the Presidency
– Ahmed Yacin Sh Ali, Minister of Information and Culture
– Saed Mohamed Bourakeh, Minister of Investments and Industries
– Ahmed Mohamed Farah, Minister of Youth and Sports
– Fuad Ahmed Nuh, Minister of Civil Aviation
– Security and administrative leaders, Jama Mahamoud Eggal (Head of Security) and Abdulkadir Salah Eidleh (Director of Cabinet).
Djibouti’s delegation mirrored this diplomatic weight, featuring:
– Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, Minister of Economy and Finance
– Hassan Houmed Ibrahim, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure
– Radwan Abdillahi Bahdon, Minister of Communication and Telecommunications
– Hassan Mohamed Kamil, Secretary of State for Sports
– Senior officials, including Almis Mohamed Abdillahi (Secretary General of the Government) and Hassan Said Kaireh (Head of National Security).
Conclusion
As the region’s key players continue their intricate dance of diplomacy, the question remains: Will this visit pave the way for genuine cooperation, or is it merely a strategic maneuver in a broader game of influence? For Somaliland, the stakes are high—not only for recognition but for asserting its place on the regional map amidst ongoing tensions and shifting alliances.
