This piece is a research report titled “Lawless Seas, Contested Shores – Piracy, Smuggling and the Scramble for Port Access in the Horn of Africa,” published on January 20, 2026 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
This report, finalized in mid-December 2025, examines maritime insecurity in the Horn of Africa, focusing on Somalia, Somaliland, and Djibouti. It analyzes the resurgence of piracy since late 2023, the smuggling of weapons between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, and the competition for ports and military bases in the region.
Key points include:
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Somalia’s instability: Somalia’s ongoing political and security crisis fuels maritime insecurity, with piracy impacting global shipping.
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Resurgent Piracy: After a period of calm, piracy has re-emerged due to relaxed security measures and the distraction of Houthi attacks. The root causes of piracy remain unaddressed.
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Arms Smuggling: A network of arms smuggling thrives between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, benefiting armed groups and potentially leading to the sharing of technical knowledge related to missiles and UAVs.
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Competition for Ports and Bases: The report analyzes the competition between global powers (US, China), Gulf states, Turkiye, and Russia for access to ports and military bases in the region. Somalia’s internal politics further complicate these rivalries.
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Local Influence: Perceptions of intense international competition are overstated. Local actors play a significant role in shaping outcomes, using international rivalries to their advantage.
The report also mentions that Israel recognized Somaliland and Somalia annulled agreements with the UAE in late December 2025 and early January 2026, respectively, with the implications to be covered in a future analysis.
The complete research is as follows:
Lawless Seas, Contested Shores – Piracy, Smuggling and the Scramble for Port Access in the Horn of Africa
By Wolf-Christian Paes, Edward Beales, Albert Vidal Ribe and Martino Faccenda
This report examines different expressions of maritime insecurity in the Horn of Africa region and considers the influence of external actors and key non-state armed groups over this domain. After an overview of some of the key land-based political and security challenges confronting Somalia, the report analyses the resurgence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023, the smuggling of munitions, components and dual-use items between the Horn of Africa and Yemen, and the evolving competition over ports and foreign military bases across the region.
Somalia has been the site of a protracted security and governance crisis since the shattering of its state institutions in the final years of the Cold War. This crisis has reverberated within the Horn of Africa, but also across the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. The shards of the Somali state have been gradually pieced back together, with a fragmented (but internationally supported) federal state nominally in charge of southern and northeastern areas of the country, and the Republic of Somaliland more effectively projecting power over Somalia’s northwest, while seeking international recognition.
These successor states have been locked into an uneasy coexistence, as the federal government in Mogadishu – with the assistance of regional and international militaries – attempts to stave off jihadist insurgents, notably al-Shabaab.
Instability in Somalia has shaped – and is increasingly shaped by – maritime-security dynamics. Somali piracy has had an outsized effect on global shipping, though the region has also experienced growing competition over both commercial and military ports. This report focuses primarily on these evolving dynamics of maritime security that surround the littoral states of the Horn of Africa, specifically the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Republic of Somaliland, and the comparatively stable Republic of Djibouti.
The report surveys different expressions of maritime insecurity in the region, and traces the influence of external interests and key non-state actors over this domain. Following an overview of some of the key land-based political and security challenges confronting Somalia – notably tensions surrounding Somali’s planned 2026 presidential elections, amid mounting territorial gains made by al-Shabaab – the report engages with the resurgence of piracy in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean since late 2023.
The recent deterioration of maritime security has followed a prolonged period of relative calm in the waters off the Somali coast, which resulted in the redeployment of international anti-piracy fleets and the relaxation of commercial risk-management practices. These factors – alongside the distraction posed by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea – have converged to create an opening that Somali pirates have been quick to exploit. Although Somali piracy remains at lower levels than during its 2008–13 peak, its re-emergence speaks to a failure to address security deficiencies on land and to tackle piracy’s underlying causes.
The report then examines the flow of munitions, components and dual-use items between the Horn of Africa and Yemen. The combination of state-sponsored arms supplies, primarily from Iran, and the activities of smugglers and arms brokers on both sides of the Gulf of Aden has created a dense network of trading relations that has thrived in the context of internal conflicts and geopolitical discord. This network appears to largely transcend ideological divisions, to the benefit of armed groups across the region, and may give rise to increased sharing of technical knowledge among armed groups, notably with regards to missiles and uninhabited aerial vehicles.
Finally, the report analyses the evolving competition over ports and foreign military bases across the Horn of Africa. It examines the fragile great-power coexistence in the region, defined by an uneasy accommodation between the United States and China and growing rivalries among Gulf States.
The delicate balance between established and emerging powers may be further unsettled by Turkiye’s expanding role in Somalia’s maritime domain, alongside Russian aspirations to establish a naval base in the region and Ethiopia’s regional and maritime ambitions. These geopolitical and geoeconomic interests are overlaid upon Somalia’s complex internal political geography, and risk driving further antagonisms within the Horn of Africa, including over the status of Somaliland.
However, perceptions that the Horn of Africa is becoming a tinderbox of intensifying international military and commercial competition for dominance over its maritime infrastructure are somewhat overstated. Instead, most external interest in the region’s ports and bases is tentative or aspirational, and tangible results tend to follow only after years of patient diplomacy with local players, who are able to guide outcomes to suit their own interests.
This indicates that port politics in the region is a multi-layered affair, with regional states seeking to manage international rivalries to enhance their diplomatic and domestic power. The report concludes with reflections on the evolving political and international dynamics relevant to maritime security off the coasts of Djibouti and Somalia.
This report covers events up until mid-December 2025, when the content of the report was finalized. On 26 December 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland, and on 12 January 2026 the government of the Federal Republic of Somalia annulled all agreements with the United Arab Emirates, affecting ports and military infrastructure, alongside defense and security cooperation arrangements. The impact and implications of these events will be covered in a forthcoming Online Analysis.
Download the Executive Summary
Wolf-Christian Paes is an Associate Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Berlin, specializing in conflict, security, development, and Middle East issues. He has over 20 years of experience in conflict zones, focusing on Security Sector Reform (SSR), Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR), and arms control, especially regarding small arms proliferation to non-state groups.
Edward Beales is a Research Analyst for Defence and Military Analysis at IISS-Europe in Berlin, starting in January 2024. His expertise includes European defence, conflict resolution, non-state armed groups, and specific regions like Ukraine, Syria, the Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa. He speaks English, German, and French. Before this role, he was a Research Assistant for Armed Conflict, contributing to research projects and the Armed Conflict Survey. He also has experience at the German development agency GIZ, a risk management consultancy, and the European Commission.
Albert Vidal Ribe is a Research Associate specializing in the Middle East Defence Industry and Procurement at the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies). He contributes research and analysis to IISS publications, focusing on defense industries in the Arabian Peninsula, foreign and security policies of Arab Gulf states, and maritime issues in the region. He has expertise in ports, navies, and overseas basing in the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea. He speaks Spanish, English, Arabic, and French. Prior to IISS, he was a Research Associate at the Gulf International Forum. He holds an MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown University and has received academic recognition in Spain.
