American security analyst Michael Rubin says Somaliland should become a key U.S. ally to counter ISIS and Al Qaeda expansion in Africa, citing its stability, democratic system and strategic Red Sea position
A leading American security analyst has urged the United States to deepen cooperation with Somaliland as part of a broader strategy to confront the expanding threat posed by Islamic State and Al Qaeda-linked groups across Africa.
Writing in a sharply worded analysis, Michael Rubin — a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Pentagon official — argued that the deteriorating security landscape stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa now “dwarfs the 2014 rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.”
Rubin’s article, titled “To Counter the Islamic State in Africa, the U.S. Must Rely on Libya, Somaliland, and Rwanda,” identifies Somaliland as one of Washington’s most viable regional partners amid escalating jihadist violence and geopolitical instability.
“The United States must find local, indigenous allies to be the tip of the spear against the Islamic State and Al Qaeda,” Rubin wrote, placing Somaliland alongside Libya’s eastern-based Libyan Armed Forces and Rwanda as key strategic partners.
The warning comes as extremist organizations linked to both ISIS and Al Qaeda continue expanding influence across Africa, particularly in Mali, the Sahel, Mozambique and Somalia. Rubin argued that Washington can no longer rely solely on traditional counterterrorism frameworks or direct military intervention.
Somaliland Cast as a Strategic Democratic Ally
Rubin described Somaliland as a “natural ally,” pointing to its relative stability, democratic governance and growing strategic alignment with Israel and Taiwan.
“Somaliland is a natural ally: Western, democratic, and secure and aligned with Israel and Taiwan against the growing threats of both Islamic extremism and China,” Rubin wrote.
The analysis sharply criticized policymakers in Washington who continue prioritizing relations with Mogadishu while overlooking Somaliland’s separate political trajectory and security record.
According to Rubin, some American officials “subscribe to the ‘one-Somalia’ arguments put out by Mogadishu,” while failing to recognize Somaliland’s historical and legal claims to sovereignty.
He further argued that fears recognition of Somaliland could undermine counterterrorism cooperation with Somalia are misplaced.
“Such an argument falls flat,” Rubin wrote. “It assumes Mogadishu seeks to defeat al-Shabaab, though it has not for decades despite ample support.”
Rubin compared current U.S. policy toward Somalia to past American mistakes with Pakistan, where Washington continued supporting Islamabad despite allegations of links to extremist networks.
“To embrace Somaliland could mark a turning point to push back Al Qaeda and Islamic State gains in Somalia,” he added.
Rising Terror Threat Across Africa
Rubin’s assessment comes amid growing alarm over the rapid spread of Islamist insurgencies across the continent.
He pointed to recent attacks in Mali by Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al Qaeda-affiliated group that has tightened pressure around the capital Bamako and carried out coordinated assaults that killed senior military officials.
“The security crisis Africa now faces dwarfs the 2014 rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria,” Rubin warned.
He also argued that African extremist organizations now possess access to far broader resource networks than ISIS once held in Iraq and Syria, including gold, timber, silver and potentially uranium.
Somaliland’s Strategic Importance in the Red Sea
Rubin’s comments also intersect with intensifying geopolitical competition around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where Somaliland’s coastline and ports have drawn growing international attention.
The Republic of Somaliland has increasingly positioned itself as a stable maritime and security partner along one of the world’s most strategically important shipping corridors.
Its expanding ties with Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates and Israel have elevated Somaliland’s profile amid a wider regional struggle involving Turkey, Iran, Gulf powers and global naval actors competing for influence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Analysts say Somaliland’s strategic location, democratic governance and relatively secure environment have made it increasingly attractive to Western policymakers searching for reliable regional allies.
Rubin argued that Washington’s Africa policy remains fragmented and lacks coherent strategic direction.
“Too often, State Department Africa Bureau policy is disjointed,” he wrote, calling for a broader regional strategy centered on dependable partners capable of confronting extremist expansion.
“The answer — Libyan Armed Forces, Somaliland, and Rwanda — will be self-evident,” Rubin concluded.
