16 years before Israel established diplomatic relations with Somaliland, Kuwaiti Analyst Abdulaziz Al-Mutairi argued that continued Arab opposition to Somaliland’s recognition would encourage the self-governing territory to seek new international partners. A look back at the 2010 article and its geopolitical significance
More than fifteen years before Israel formally recognized Somaliland and established diplomatic relations, Kuwaiti journalist and political analyst Abdulaziz Al-Mutairi argued that continued Arab opposition to Somaliland’s aspirations for statehood would eventually create space for other international partners to deepen their engagement with the self-governing territory.
Writing in February 2010, Al-Mutairi urged Arab governments to rethink what he described as an outdated policy toward Somaliland. He contended that Somaliland’s political stability, democratic development and strategic location along the Gulf of Aden warranted diplomatic recognition rather than continued support for a reunified Somalia.
His article, Arabs Losing Somaliland to Israel, framed the issue as both a geopolitical challenge and a missed opportunity for the Arab world.
At the time, his warning was largely theoretical. More than a decade later, however, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland, establishing full diplomatic relations and validating, in the eyes of many Somaliland supporters, one of Al-Mutairi’s central predictions.
Somaliland’s Historical and Cultural Ties
In his 2010 essay, Al-Mutairi argued that Somaliland possesses deep historical, cultural and religious links with the Arab world. He described the people of Somaliland as overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims and emphasized longstanding historical traditions that connect several Somali clans to the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq.
He referenced traditional genealogies that trace the ancestry of the Isaaq clan to Sheikh Isaaq, whom many oral traditions associate with the Arab world, while also discussing historical narratives concerning migrations following the decline of the Abbasid Caliphate. These accounts reflect traditions held by many Somalilanders, although historians continue to debate aspects of medieval clan origins and migration patterns.
Al-Mutairi used these historical connections to argue that Somaliland naturally belonged within the broader Arab political and cultural community.
A Call for Recognition
The central argument of Al-Mutairi’s article focused on Somaliland’s political development after restoring its self-declared independence in 1991.
He praised Somaliland for establishing functioning institutions, maintaining internal stability and organizing competitive elections despite receiving little international recognition.
According to Al-Mutairi, Arab governments failed to acknowledge what he viewed as Somaliland’s successful experiment in state-building while continuing to support Somalia’s territorial unity despite decades of instability in the south.
He argued that Somaliland had demonstrated the practical characteristics of statehood and deserved international recognition based on its governance and stability.
Warning of Growing Israeli Interest
Perhaps the most striking element of Al-Mutairi’s article was his prediction that Israel would eventually pursue closer relations with Somaliland if Arab governments continued ignoring Hargeisa.
Referring to media reports circulating at the time, he suggested Israel recognized Somaliland’s strategic position along one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors and could seek diplomatic representation in the territory.
He warned that continued Arab disengagement would allow Israel to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa through cooperation with Somaliland.
Criticism of Arab Policy
Al-Mutairi was particularly critical of what he viewed as the policies of Egypt, Sudan and several Arab League members.
He argued these governments continued opposing Somaliland’s recognition primarily because of broader regional geopolitical calculations rather than conditions on the ground inside Somaliland itself.
He called on Arab governments to establish diplomatic, economic and educational relations with Somaliland, arguing that isolating the territory would only encourage it to seek alternative international partnerships.
Among the practical consequences he highlighted were difficulties faced by Somaliland students whose educational qualifications received limited recognition abroad and challenges experienced by Somaliland passport holders due to the territory’s unresolved international status.
Looking Back Fifteen Years Later
Viewed from today’s perspective, Al-Mutairi’s 2010 article stands as an early geopolitical forecast that anticipated significant changes in Somaliland’s foreign relations.
While many of his historical interpretations and political conclusions remain matters of debate, his broader argument—that prolonged diplomatic isolation would encourage Somaliland to cultivate new international alliances—has become increasingly relevant as regional competition in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa has intensified.
The subsequent establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Somaliland has renewed interest in Al-Mutairi’s article, which many now regard as a prescient assessment of how geopolitical realities could reshape regional diplomacy.
Whether Arab governments ultimately reconsider their longstanding approach toward Somaliland remains uncertain. But Al-Mutairi’s central message—that diplomatic vacuums rarely remain unfilled—continues to resonate in discussions about the rapidly evolving strategic landscape of the Horn of Africa.
