By offering Ethiopia maritime access to its territory, the Republic of Somaliland hopes to obtain official recognition of its existence by its influential neighbor. An uncertain but daring bet for Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, but is not currently recognized by any state.
By :David RICH
Somalia has not let up since the signing, on January 1 , of a maritime “memorandum of understanding” between Ethiopia and the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland.
This territory, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but is not internationally recognized, intends to grant Ethiopia 20 km of its coastline, thus offering it direct access to the sea, for a period of 50 years. In reaction, Mogadishu denounced a “flagrant violation of its territorial integrity” and vowed to fight this “illegal” text.
Somaliland, in search of legitimacy since its declaration of independence, hopes for its part to obtain official recognition from its Ethiopian neighbor, which has undertaken to carry out “an in-depth assessment” on the issue. It should also obtain shares in Ethiopian Airlines, the largest airline in Africa.
De facto state
A territory of 285,000 km2 populated today by 4.5 million inhabitants, Somaliland was until 1960 a British colony, neighboring Italian Somalia. Upon their independence, the two territories merged to form Somalia. In 1991, when the country had been plunged into a deadly civil war for a decade, a northern political-military group, the Somali National Movement (SNM), decreed the territory’s independence.
It has since acquired its own institutions as well as a constitution, adopted by referendum in 2001. This de facto state prints its own currency and issues its passports but is not recognized by the international community. Somalia considers it part of its territory.
Loyalist inclinations and political crisis
Somaliland is often presented as a more stable state than Somalia, ravaged by decades of civil war and Islamist rebellion. It is nevertheless crossed by significant internal dissensions.
In February 2023, violent clashes broke out between separatist forces and loyalists defending Somalia’s unity in Las Anod, in the south of the territory. Fighting which left more than 100 dead and around 600 injured, according to Amnesty International.
“Somaliland security forces bombarded the city indiscriminately, damaging hospitals, schools and mosques, killing and injuring civilians and displacing tens of thousands of people,” reads a report from the organization .
A few months earlier, the presidential election, supposed to take place in November 2022, had been postponed by the electoral commission and the president’s mandate extended for a period of two years. Several opposition parties then claimed to no longer recognize the legitimacy of the government .
In this context of strong internal tensions, the recognition of Ethiopia would represent a salutary victory for the power in place.
“The Somaliland president, Muse Bihi Abdi, is contested, he knows that he has fragile legitimacy” explains Marc Lavergne, emeritus research director at the CNRS, specialist in the Horn of Africa. “This official recognition from the Ethiopian President, Abiy Ahmed, could help him establish his power while offering him significant economic opportunities. Because Somaliland has resources such as its ports but also natural wealth that is still little exploited.”
The challenge of recognition
In 2017, Somaliland signed the largest contract in its history with a foreign investor, the Emirati company DP World, relating to the modernization and expansion of the port of Berbera, its economic capital, whose new trade zone was was inaugurated last March .
In January 2023, authorities confirmed the discovery of significant oil deposits near the Ethiopian border, an area where British company Genel Energy has committed to drilling.
Somaliland, whose population is among the poorest in the world, nevertheless remains largely isolated on the international scene, due to its non-recognition. An isolation that its president Muse Bihi Abdi hopes to break, through the new agreement with Addis Ababa.
“If Ethiopia, one of the most populous countries in Africa, which has never been colonized and where the African Union is headquartered, recognizes Somaliland, a certain number of countries which did not want to be the first will follow” analysis researcher Roland Marchal, specialist in the Horn of Africa. “The Somaliland president’s calculation is not without foundation, the problem is that, for the moment, what is written does not correspond to what is said.”
Commitment still unclear
After signing this “memorandum of understanding”, the Somaliland government welcomed a “mutually beneficial” partnership. “Ethiopia will formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland, setting a precedent by being the first nation to grant international recognition to our country,” said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs .
In a statement Wednesday, the Ethiopian government was much less categorical, saying it would conduct “an in-depth assessment with a view to taking a position on Somaliland’s efforts to obtain international recognition.
Marc Lavergne considers, for his part, the granting of this recognition to be a plausible option. “economic development and limited aid. This is the nature of the relationship between Somaliland and the following countries: Ethiopia has its internal problems and its president, Abiy Ahmed, uses development projects as a strategy to unify the people. This is what we saw in particular with the construction of the Great Renaissance Dam [on the Nile blue], which had already greatly displeased some of its neighbors. Today it is about this maritime agreement which offers access to the Red Sea. It is a very important partnership for it. It is therefore not excluded that it offers the Somaliland power the counterpart of recognition”.
Despite intense international pressure and sharp criticism from Somalia, the Ethiopian government defended the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday. “No party or country will be affected (…). There is no broken trust and no laws have been broken,” he said.
The president of Somaliland also increased the pressure on Addis Ababa, reaffirming that his counterpart was committed to official recognition. To become a real agreement, the signed memorandum still needs to be ratified by both parties.
