The video “Somaliland Ruins Turkey’s Plans” by geopolitical analyst Alexandros Itimoudis (on the Deep Information channel) examines Turkey’s expanding influence in the Horn of Africa and the strategic counterbalances emerging from Somaliland, the U.S., and potentially Greece.
Below is a detailed summary of the key ideas discussed:
Summary of key themes:
- Turkey’s growing influence in Somalia and the Horn of Africa since 2017.
- Ankara’s ambition to control Red Sea routes via a “triangle” with Somalia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, funded by Qatar.
- Pressure on Egypt and new military cooperation with Ethiopia.
- Somaliland’s negotiations with the U.S. for recognition and a naval base threaten Turkey’s plans.
- Greece could leverage this shift by partnering with Somaliland and the UAE to counter Turkish regional ambitions.
- Such a move could also open a diplomatic and economic link between Greece and Ethiopia.
- Success requires a courageous and strategic Greek foreign policy.
Turkey has been rapidly expanding its geopolitical footprint across the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and the Horn of Africa, taking advantage of regional instability. Since 2017, Ankara has cultivated a close military and political alliance with Somalia, establishing one of its largest overseas military bases there. This base provides not only Turkish language education but also military training to Somali soldiers, who are often sent for advanced instruction in Ankara and Istanbul. Through this presence, Turkey aims to consolidate long-term influence over Somalia’s military and political structures.
The analyst argues that Turkey’s ambitions go beyond Somalia itself. Ankara’s broader goal is to gain a strategic foothold in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors. To achieve this, Turkey envisions forming a “strategic triangle” connecting Somalia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, with Turkey as the coordinating power and Qatar providing financial backing. This network would strengthen Turkey’s geopolitical reach across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean, while aligning indirectly with China’s broader continental strategies and exerting pressure on India’s sphere of influence.
Moreover, Turkey’s growing activity in the Horn of Africa allows it to pressure Egypt — a regional rival — and to deepen its cooperation with Ethiopia, to which it reportedly sells Bayraktar drones. This emerging network of partnerships positions Turkey as the head of a regional strategic bloc pursuing influence in the Red Sea and East Africa, though it also risks friction with Iran over competing ambitions.
Against this backdrop, Somaliland — a self-declared independent state that has de facto separated from Somalia — is playing a disruptive role. Somaliland is currently in talks with the United States regarding official recognition, the construction of a naval base, and a broader strategic cooperation agreement. Such a development would undermine Turkey’s regional plans, as it would place an American-aligned outpost right on the Red Sea’s southern entrance. Somaliland’s location gives it strategic leverage, allowing it to monitor maritime routes and project influence toward Yemen, where Houthi rebels have been conducting missile attacks on commercial vessels.
The speaker then turns to Greece’s potential role. He argues that Greece could exploit this geopolitical opening by building a strategic partnership with Somaliland, leveraging its existing naval presence in the Red Sea (through the Hydra frigate). Greece could offer naval warfare expertise and cooperate with the United Arab Emirates, which already invests heavily in Berbera Port, Somaliland’s most strategically valuable harbor. Through such cooperation, Greece could counterbalance Turkish influence in the region indirectly and cost-effectively.
However, Alexandros cautions that this would require a bold and focused Greek foreign policy, something he believes has been lacking so far. Establishing relations with Somaliland could also give Greece access to Ethiopia, a landlocked Christian-majority nation seeking maritime access through Somaliland. This would further extend Greece’s diplomatic reach into East Africa and provide a strategic gateway to a resource-rich and emerging region.
The analyst concludes that the Somaliland question offers both a challenge and an opportunity: while it disrupts Ankara’s ambitions in the Horn of Africa, it simultaneously opens space for Greece and its allies to expand influence and secure new strategic partnerships.
Full English-translated video transcript
00:00 Turkey’s moves in Somalia, the Black Sea and what exactly Greece could do to get a foothold in Ankara’s plans in the Horn of Africa. Here in Deep Information. >> Good evening to everyone. Timodis Alexandros, geopolitical analyst here in Deep Information, where today we will once again touch upon Turkey, which Turkey is currently making a lot of moves, especially in the wider Middle East and Indian Ocean region, as things are going through instability. Moves that
00:37 I believe that they also touch Greece, since they are taking place at very critical points in the region, as we will see. Specifically, today we will analyze Turkey’s movements in the Horn of Africa and discover a little about the strategy that the Turks are deploying in this critical region, but also what Greece could do from now on.
00:57 So tune in and let’s get into some more in-depth information. It is a fact that the Turks have greatly increased their presence in the Horn of Africa, since at least 2017 they have maintained a very strategic and close cooperation with Somalia, which Somalia is currently in an informal civil war, since it has many problems with the Somaliland, which we will mention below and the importance it has for the region.
01:24 while there are also many Islamist groups on the territory of Somalia and the Turks essentially offer know-how to the Somalis and for this reason they have built a huge base which, in addition to Turkish lessons, also offers military training to regular soldiers who even go for further training in Istanbul and Ankara.
01:46 What we should know is that at this moment Turkey is seeking to gain a foothold in the strategic point of the Red Sea and through this to create a strategic triangle consisting of Somalia, Pakistan and Bangladesh with a coordinating role for Turkey and funding from Qatar.
02:05 This scheme, as you understand, is something that is consistent with the broader plans of the land forces and especially China or with regard to the tightening of India, but also with the exercise of strategic control over the Red Sea straits. However, through this, Turkey is also doing something else. It is also putting pressure on Egypt as it has sought to increase its contacts with Ethiopia to which Ethiopia is selling Braktar.
02:33 Therefore, a very large strategic group is being formed with Turkey as its leader, which strategic group aims to serve Ankara’s broader regional aspirations. And of course, this also brings it into conflict with Iran to a certain extent. But this is a different type of analysis. At the moment we are talking, a strategic conversation is taking place, we would say, between Somaliland, which Somaliland, let’s emphasize that it is this specific country that has declared that it wants to secede from Somalia and is de facto seceded at this very moment.
03:05 is discussing with the United States for recognition by the United States, the construction of a naval base and essentially concluding a strategic agreement between Somaliland and the United States. Such a move essentially thwarts Turkey’s plans, while at the same time, due to its strategic location, Somaliland can exert pressure and project power in Yemen, where the Houthis, let me remind you, are currently carrying out missile attacks against ships in the Red Sea. But how could the
03:38 Somaliland to be a strategic asset for Greece, I believe it could be relatively easy because if Greece, which has a presence in the Red Sea through the Hydra frigate, can conclude a strategic agreement with Somaliland, it could offer naval warfare expertise to this country in combination with the United Arab Emirates, which has already invested in the port of Berbera, the most strategic port in Somaliland, and in this way in a smart and indirect way.
04:06 way to spoil the plans of the Turks. Of course, something like this requires a very specialized, targeted and very brave foreign policy. We do not see Greece doing something like this so far. It is the truth, but I think that the issue of Somaliland is very interesting, because from the moment Greece could sign a strategic agreement with this country, we would automatically lose ground with Ethiopia.
04:35 which Ethiopia precisely because it is a landlocked country seeks to reach the warm sea through Somaliland. Incidentally, Ethiopians are also Christians. Therefore, I do not see the reason why Greece should not have a strategic foothold in the specific country of Somaliland and through it have a gateway to Ethiopia.
04:57 So that’s all for this specific issue. Stay tuned. More analyses will follow on more specialized issues and a bit more applied geopolitics. Until then, be well everyone.
