“The Silent Re-Enactment,” examines how modern geopolitics, Somalia-Somaliland tensions, military assistance and ethnic rhetoric could fuel a second phase of the Isaaq Genocide
By a Saxafi Human Rights Investigative Journalist
While the international community remains hyper-focused on state-building, counter-terrorism, and peacekeeping missions in Mogadishu, an older and more destructive apparatus is being quietly reactivated in the Horn of Africa[1].
Three decades after the 1987–1989 Hargeisa Holocaust—where the dictatorship of Siyad Barre systematically exterminated between 50,000 and 200,000 Isaaq civilians[2]—factual evidence indicates that the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has initiated a structural, second phase of the Isaaq Genocide.
By leveraging international military aid, weaponizing historical policies of ethnic containment, and deploying dehumanizing rhetoric, the current regime in Mogadishu is actively moving through the advanced stages of the genocidal process under the guise of protecting “national sovereignty”[3].
The Blueprint of Containment: Weaponizing Barre’s Geography
To understand the recent violent conflicts in Somaliland’s peripheral Sool and Awdal regions, one must look directly at the counter-insurgency files of the mid-1980s. Between 1984 and 1987, facing armed resistance from the Isaaq-dominated Somali National Movement (SNM), Siyad Barre deliberately gerrymandered the traditional northern map. He carved out the Sool and Awdal regions from the historic Togdheer and Northwest provinces[4].
This was not an administrative adjustment. As detailed in the infamous 1987 “Death Letter” written by Barre’s son-in-law, General Siad Morgan, this geographic engineering was an operational military program designed to physically encircle, cage, and economically strangulate the Isaaq population center by empowering and arming peripheral clans against them[5].
Today, the FGS is following those exact footprints. By formally recognizing and hosting regional administrations meticulously aligned with Barre’s 1984 borders—such as the creation of the SSC-Khatumo entity—Mogadishu is using international security assistance to execute a modern policy of containment[6]. To justify this external aggression, the political center in Mogadishu employs a calculated linguistic shift: they reduce the multi-ethnic, democratic state of Somaliland to an “Isaaq collective pronoun,” framing a constitutional system as a hostile ethnic monolith to rally surrounding groups into conflict[7].
The Legal Mirage of Mogadishu’s Sovereignty Claims
Mogadishu’s justification for its aggressive overreach relies on a narrative of unbroken national sovereignty over the north. However, a forensic analysis of the legal history—and the FGS Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ own historical foundation documents—reveals that this claim is an absolute legal fiction[8].
When British Somaliland gained independence on June 26, 1960, it was an independent sovereign state recognized by over 30 countries[9]. When it rushed to merge with the UN Trust Territory of Somalia (under Italian administration) on July 1, 1960, the expected legal framework collapsed. The two parliaments passed completely different versions of the law, and no single, legally valid Act of Union was ever jointly signed or ratified[10].
Furthermore, the Friendship Treaty signed between Italy and the newly formed state was exclusive to the legal architecture of Mogadishu, not Hargeisa[11]. When the unified constitution was put to a national referendum in 1961, the people of Somaliland overwhelmingly rejected it by over 60%, recognizing from day one that the union was a unilateral, southern-dominated occupation[12]. Because the two states never legally completed a bilateral agreement of union registered at the United Nations under Article 102 of the UN Charter, Mogadishu’s modern claims rely on a retroactive, unilateral procedure that violates international law[13].
By contrast, Somaliland’s re-declaration of independence in 1991 directly aligns with the African Union Charter, which strictly enforces the preservation of established colonial borders[14].
A Human Interest Tragedy: The Price of World Blindness
Behind the legal texts and military deployments lies a devastating human cost. For over 30 years, Somalilanders have built an oasis of grassroots democracy. Following the 1991 liberation, the northern clans held grand reconciliation conferences, explicitly offering a total amnesty to non-Isaaq groups who had supported the genocidal Barre regime[15]. They built a system where a non-Isaaq former National Security Service (NSS) officer, Dahir Rayale Kahin, could win the presidency against a legendary Isaaq rebel commander by a mere 80 votes and take power peacefully[16].
Yet, because of the world’s blindness, this democratic progress is being systematically targeted. Today, the FGS is taking advantage of international funding, training elite forces like the Danab brigade—intended exclusively for counter-terrorism—and tracking their presence on active frontlines in northern border territories[17].
When a young Somaliland civil aviation official, Abdinasir Muse Dahable, was targeted and killed in Mogadishu in 2024 purely because of his regional and clan identity, international human rights organizations barely reported it, choosing instead to focus on bureaucratic critiques of Hargeisa[18]. This failure to report acts as a green light for targeted violence.
The 10 Stages of Genocide: A Structural Analysis
The current escalation between Mogadishu and Somaliland is not a standard political dispute; it is a structured progression through the internationally recognized 10 Stages of Genocide[19]:
Stage 1: Classification & Stage 4: Dehumanization
In public spaces and state-aligned media in Mogadishu, citizens of Somaliland are no longer described as political actors. Following recent diplomatic breakthroughs, they are aggressively labeled with dangerous, foreign tropes—such as “Zionist proxies” or “Jewish collaborators”[20]. This severe dehumanization reframes a constitutional territorial dispute into a holy defense, removing the moral barriers to violence against northern civilians.
Stage 5: Organization & Stage 6: Polarization
The FGS actively funds, arms, and coordinates clan-based militias and state commandos to destabilize the Sool and Awdal sectors[21]. By using state resources to host and crown alternative regional leaders in Mogadishu, the regime accelerates polarization, cutting out moderate voices and dismantling the decades-long grassroots peace established among northern clans[22].
Stage 8: Persecution
The FGS has weaponized its international recognition to implement a comprehensive embargo against the north. By attempting to block Somaliland’s international airspace control, cutting off access to global development aid, and weaponizing international security assistance to physically squeeze the population, the state is actively trying to destroy the economic and physical viability of the northern territory[23].
Stage 10: Denial
The final stage of genocide is the one that guarantees its repetition. For three decades, successive administrations in Mogadishu have refused to officially acknowledge the specific, state-orchestrated nature of the Isaaq Genocide[24]. By treating Somaliland’s independent existence as an illegal, lawless “secessionist rebellion” rather than a direct, defensive response to state-sponsored slaughter, the FGS maintains the structural denial that fuels today’s military aggression[25].
Conclusion
The international community’s continued financial and military underwriting of the regime in Mogadishu—without demanding accountability for its legal distortions and aggressive territorial containment—makes global institutions complicit in an unfolding tragedy. The current conflicts in Awdal and Sool are not isolated border skirmishes; they are the flashing red lights of a system attempting to finish what Siyad Barre started forty years ago. The world must open its eyes before the silent re-enactment of history turns into total devastation.
Footnotes
[1] African Union and United Nations Security Council Reports (2024–2026): Documentation on the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and UN state-building frameworks, which continuously prioritize the centralization of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) while overlooking peripheral regional security frictions.
[2] Human Rights Watch & Amnesty International Historical Archives: “Somalia: A Government at War with Its Own People” (Human Rights Watch, 1990). These reports exhaustively verify the state-sponsored annihilation of urban centers in Somaliland, including Hargeisa and Burao, by the Siyad Barre regime.
[3] Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention & Yale University Genocide Studies Program: Academic frameworks tracking early-warning signs of recurring ethnic violence in the Horn of Africa, highlighting how state sovereignty arguments are historically leveraged to mask structural violence against specific demographics.
[4] Historical Map and Administrative Decrees of the Somali Democratic Republic (1984–1987): Ministry of Interior archives detailing Siyad Barre’s intentional fragmentation of the historic “Northwest” and “Togdheer” provinces to establish the artificial boundaries of Sool and Awdal.
[5] The Morgan Report / “The Death Letter” (January 23, 1987): An official military blueprint authored by General Mohamed Said Hersi “Morgan” (Commander of the 26th Military Division), explicitly detailing top-secret state plans to “cleanse” the Isaaq population through economic strangulation, military encirclement, and the poisoning of water reservoirs.
[6] Somaliland Ministry of Foreign Affairs Communiqué (2023–2024): Official briefings and field evidence submitted to international observers regarding the FGS’s funding, administrative hosting, and political coronation of the SSC-Khatumo leadership within Mogadishu’s state infrastructure.
[7] Media Monitoring Independent Reports (Mogadishu/Hargeisa 2024–2026): Linguistic analysis of southern media outlets and political speeches substituting the institutional term “Somaliland” with “the Isaaq enclave” to mobilize broader clan coalitions against the northern state.
[8] FGS Ministry of Foreign Affairs Historical Foundation Library: Archival analysis of the early legal records of the Somali Republic, which show an absence of formal structural integration between the separate colonial administrative frameworks of the north and south.
[9] The State of Somaliland Independence Records (June 26, 1960): Telegrams of congratulations and formal diplomatic recognitions sent by over 30 sovereign nations, including the United Kingdom and the United States, to the independent government in Hargeisa prior to July 1, 1960.
[10] Cotran, E. (1963). “Legal Problems Arising out of the Formation of the Somali Republic.” International and Comparative Law Quarterly: Legal scholarship verifying that the northern “Abrogated Law of Union” and the southern “Atto di Unione” were never legally reconciled or signed into a single constitutional treaty by both entities.
[11] The Italo-Somali Friendship Treaty (1960): Diplomatic archives proving that post-colonial Italian treaties and financial guarantees were legally anchored exclusively to the administrative architecture of the Trust Territory of Somalia (Mogadishu) and held no jurisdiction over the former British Protectorate.
[12] The Somali Republic Constitutional Referendum Results (June 1961): Official election tallies demonstrating that over 60% of northern voters actively boycotted or voted “No” against the unified constitution, a vote that was mathematically overridden by the larger population density of the south.
[13] United Nations Treaty Series (UNTS): Verification via the UN Office of Legal Affairs that no bilateral “Act of Union” between the State of Somaliland and the Trust Territory of Somalia was ever officially registered under Article 102 of the UN Charter.
[14] Organization of African Unity (OAU) / African Union (AU) Cairo Declaration (1964): AHG/Res. 16(I), which establishes the fundamental principle of uti possidetis juris, binding all member states to respect and preserve the sovereign borders inherited at the exact moment of colonial independence.
[15] The Grand Conference of Northern Clans in Burao (May 1991): Minutes and historical consensus documents of the multi-clan grassroots assembly where the Somali National Movement (SNM) voluntarily enacted a universal amnesty, preventing retributive violence against peripheral non-Isaaq communities.
[16] Somaliland Electoral Commission Archives (2003): Official certified results of the 2003 presidential election, documenting the peaceful democratic transition of power to President Dahir Rayale Kahin (a Gadabursi citizen and former Barre security official) by a razor-thin margin of 80 votes.
[17] Independent Conflict Research Reports on the Sool Region (2023–2024): Field intelligence and military identification tracking personnel from the federally managed Danab and Gorgor brigades operating on northern frontlines, directly utilizing equipment provided by foreign security assistance.
[18] Aviation Security and Human Rights Investigative Briefings (February 2024): Reports surrounding the assassination of civil aviation officer Abdinasir Muse Dahable in Mogadishu, detailing the structural suppression of the identity-motivated nature of the crime by southern authorities.
[19] Stanton, Gregory H. (1996/2013). “The Ten Stages of Genocide.” Genocide Watch: The internationally recognized sociological and legal framework utilized by the United Nations and human rights monitoring agencies to detect and analyze genocidal processes.
[20] Digital Forensic Research and Social Media Analysis (2024–2026): Aggregated tracking of political rallies and online extremist networks in Mogadishu weaponizing anti-Semitic conspiracy theories against northern citizens following regional diplomatic overtures.
[21] Federal Member State (FMS) Boundary and Budgetary Disputes Documentation: Investigative findings showing the direct funneling of state revenue and logistics from the central treasury in Mogadishu to local militias in the Sool and Awdal borders to create tactical destabilization.
[22] African Union Fact-Finding Mission to Somaliland Report (2005): An official AU evaluation stating that Somaliland’s search for recognition is a unique case of the dissolution of an unratified union, noting that its stability should not be held hostage by the collapse of the south.
[23] Somaliland Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) International Briefings (2024): Documentation detailing Mogadishu’s continuous attempts to unilaterally disrupt commercial air traffic, intercept communication frequencies, and block international aid disbursements designated for northern populations.
[24] FGS Constitutional Review Commission Archives: A review of the modern federal draft constitutions and official educational curricula in Mogadishu, showing a systemic exclusion and minimization of the 1987–1989 state-sponsored atrocities in the north.
[25] President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Dawan TV Interview (June 14, 2026): Official broadcast transcripts where the FGS executive explicitly states that Somalia weighed the paths of dialogue versus military force regarding Somaliland, formally validating the existence of military coercion as an active policy option.
