Somalia reversed course and permitted the UAE to withdraw military personnel and equipment from Mogadishu without inspection after Ethiopian mediation. Four Ethiopian aircraft conducted the evacuation amid a wider rupture that saw Mogadishu cancel defense and port agreements with Abu Dhabi
MOGADISHU — Somalia’s federal government on Thursday agreed to allow the United Arab Emirates to withdraw its remaining personnel and military equipment from Mogadishu without on-site inspections, following last-minute mediation by Ethiopian officials — a pragmatic resolution to a tense diplomatic rupture that risked widening regional fault lines.
Under the arrangement, four Ethiopian government aircraft were cleared to conduct the evacuation from Terminal 23 at Mogadishu’s international airport. Two planes were designated to carry Emirati embassy staff and foreign workers; the other two were assigned to transport military weapons and equipment. Somali officials and independent witnesses said the first flight carrying military hardware departed Thursday afternoon and a second was expected within hours.
“The permission granted today reflects our desire to de-escalate an already fraught situation while preserving Somalia’s sovereign interests,” said a senior Somali official involved in the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks. “We insisted on a diplomatic solution that would prevent confrontation and allow for orderly withdrawal.”
A reversal after a standoff
The decision amounts to a reversal of Mogadishu’s stance just 24 hours earlier. On Wednesday, government authorities had refused a request to permit Ethiopian aircraft to carry out the Emirati withdrawal after Abu Dhabi insisted the evacuation proceed without searches — a demand that initially collided with Somalia’s concern over unchecked removal of military materiel. After mediation by Ethiopian interlocutors, Somali authorities acceded to the UAE’s terms and granted the necessary clearance.
Analysts said the pivot reflected both diplomatic pressure and an effort by Mogadishu to avoid a confrontation that could have had immediate security and political costs.
“This was a pragmatic, damage-control move,” said Dr. Hawa Farah, a Horn of Africa security specialist based in Nairobi. “Somalia wanted to assert its sovereignty but not at the expense of opening a battleground with a gulf power and its regional partners.”
Ethiopia’s quiet intervention
Ethiopia’s role was pivotal. The head of Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service, Redwan (Ridwan) Hussein, arrived in Mogadishu on an unannounced visit earlier this week and held private talks with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, delivering a message from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, according to local reporting and government sources. Hussein was also expected to meet Somalia’s intelligence director to discuss security cooperation and the unfolding diplomatic crisis.
Ethiopia has maintained close strategic ties with the UAE and previously stepped in to mediate between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi in 2018; the rapid involvement of Addis Ababa this week suggested a deliberate attempt to broker a controlled disengagement and blunt further escalation. “Addis Ababa does not want instability spilling across its frontiers,” said a Horn-region analyst. “Mediation forestalls disorder and buys time for diplomatic channels to reopen.”
Broader fallout: cancelled agreements and regional friction
The evacuation comes in the wake of a broader rupture: on Jan. 12 Somalia’s federal government announced it was annulling all agreements with the UAE, including defense and security pacts as well as arrangements tied to the ports of Bosaso, Berbera and Kismayo — moves Mogadishu framed as necessary to safeguard national sovereignty. The action provoked sharp disagreement with Somaliland and semi-autonomous regional administrations that maintain direct ties to the UAE, and it raised immediate questions about the management of port operations and security cooperation across the Horn.
The cancellations have not, however, halted commercial operations in some key facilities. Dubai’s DP World said this week that its activities at Berbera port in Somaliland were continuing under existing commercial arrangements despite political tensions, reflecting the complicated overlap of local, national and international interests in regional infrastructure investments.
Diplomatic chessboard and unanswered questions
Somalia’s formal decision to cut ties with Abu Dhabi followed reporting and allegations that Emirati activity in the region — and an episode involving the movement of a Yemeni separatist leader — had undermined Mogadishu’s view of its sovereignty. The Somali presidency has framed the cancellations as a necessary assertion against external interference; Abu Dhabi has denied wrongdoing and called for diplomatic channels to resolve disputes.
Observers cautioned that while the immediate crisis was smoothed over by the withdrawal, the underlying drivers of the dispute remain unresolved. Those include competing strategic relationships across the Horn — involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia, China and the Gulf states — divergent approaches to Somaliland and other subnational authorities, and the political imperatives of an embattled central government that must balance domestic legitimacy with external partnerships.
“If all sides walk away today, that’s only a pause,” said Abdullahi Noor, a Mogadishu-based political commentator. “What happens next will depend on whether Addis Ababa can nudge a diplomatic process forward, whether regional administrations defy Mogadishu’s moves, and whether the UAE seeks a more formal recalibration of its footprint in Somalia.”
For now, the Ethiopian-facilitated flights allowed the UAE to withdraw its equipment without the inspections that had been a sticking point — a narrowly tailored solution that prevented an immediate diplomatic rupture from spiraling into a more dangerous standoff. Whether it ushers in talks to repair relationships, or simply settles one acute moment while leaving tensions to smolder, remains to be seen.
