LONDON — The United States may be preparing to recalibrate its policy in the Horn of Africa, potentially opening new doors for Somaliland, according to remarks by Dr. J. Peter Pham, a prominent voice in U.S. Africa policy, at the Financial Times Africa Summit 2025.
Pham, a former U.S. Special Envoy for the Sahel and one of Washington’s most influential Africa strategists, told delegates that “there will be changes in the Horn of Africa,” hinting at a more flexible and pragmatic American approach toward the region. His comments have sparked renewed speculation about a possible shift in U.S. engagement with Somaliland, the self-governing territory that has sought international recognition since 1991.
“The Horn of Africa remains a region of immense strategic importance — for security, trade, and global supply chains,” Pham said. “We cannot afford policies that ignore those who have built stability and governance where so many others have struggled.”
The remarks come amid a backdrop of mounting frustration in Washington over Somalia’s prolonged instability, fragile federal system, and persistent security challenges. Analysts suggest that Somaliland’s record of peace, democratic governance, and economic potential could increasingly appeal to U.S. policymakers seeking reliable partners in the region.
“Pham’s statement is significant because it reflects a growing recognition that Somaliland is not just a local story — it’s a model of African self-reliance,” said Dr. Amina Warsame, a Horn of Africa political analyst based in Nairobi. “If the U.S. begins to engage more substantively with Hargeisa, it could reshape the diplomatic map of the region.”
Somaliland’s leaders and civil society figures welcomed Pham’s remarks as a hopeful sign. A senior official in Hargeisa, speaking on condition of anonymity because discussions remain sensitive, said the comments “signal the beginning of a more realistic and interest-based U.S. policy” toward the Horn.
For decades, the U.S. and other Western nations have maintained formal ties with Mogadishu in deference to Somalia’s territorial claims, even as Somaliland has developed its own constitution, currency, and elected government. The territory’s advocates argue that it meets all the traditional criteria for statehood under international law.
Pham’s statement may also align with broader American objectives: countering China’s influence in the Red Sea corridor, securing maritime routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and supporting democratic partners in an increasingly contested geopolitical environment.
“The U.S. can no longer afford to let the Horn be defined by conflict and fragility,” Pham told the audience, according to participants at the summit. “We need to invest in stability — and recognize those who have already built it.”
Experts say any policy shift will likely be gradual, focusing first on enhanced economic cooperation, development partnerships, and security coordination, rather than formal recognition. But for Somaliland, even a modest upgrade in U.S. engagement would mark a watershed moment.
“This could be the most consequential opening for Somaliland in years,” said Michael Shinn, a former U.S. diplomat specializing in East Africa. “Pham’s comments don’t come lightly — they reflect a broader debate inside Washington about how to reward good governance and reliability in a volatile region.”
As the U.S. foreign policy apparatus transitions under the current administration, observers will be watching whether Pham’s remarks translate into action. For now, in Hargeisa, the mood is one of cautious optimism.
“We have waited for decades to be seen for what we are — peaceful, democratic, and committed to progress,” said a young civil society activist in Somaliland. “Maybe this time, Washington is finally listening.”
The Architect: Pham’s Advocacy for Somaliland
Dr. Pham, whom President Trump was expected to appoint as the top U.S. State Department official overseeing African affairs, is a long-standing vocal proponent for Somaliland’s recognition. He has consistently highlighted the country’s stability, democratic achievements, and its potential role as a reliable security partner in an unstable neighborhood.
His advocacy has previously placed him in direct opposition to the Federal Government of Somalia. Earlier this year, Pham openly mocked Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for offering the U.S. access to strategic ports in Somaliland and Puntland that his government in Mogadishu does not control, calling the move an “insult” and an act of “utter foolishness” .
Somaliland’s Strategic Value and the Case for Recognition
Somaliland’s case for engagement rests on several pillars that align with U.S. strategic interests:
- Stability and Democracy: Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, Somaliland has built functioning democratic institutions, held regular elections, and maintained internal security, all without formal international recognition. Analysts describe it as a “model of progress” and a “functioning, democratic state” in a troubled region.
- Strategic Location: The country’s coastline along the Gulf of Aden is a significant asset. The port of Berbera offers a potential strategic alternative to Djibouti, where China has established a substantial military presence. A base in Somaliland would be a “critical asset for the United States in countering Houthi threats” in the Red Sea.
- Economic Partnerships: A recent landmark memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia, which offers Somaliland potential recognition in exchange for port access, has already elevated the region’s geopolitical profile and demonstrated its capacity for high-level international engagement.
Regional Reactions and the Path Ahead
The prospect of U.S. engagement with Somaliland has been met with optimism within the region, where it is seen as a critical step toward long-sought international legitimacy. President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro’s government has actively worked to elevate Somaliland’s global profile, including through high-level participation in international forums like the World Government Summit in Dubai.
However, the path is fraught with diplomatic challenges. Somalia remains firmly opposed to any recognition of Somaliland, which it considers an integral part of its sovereign territory. Mogadishu has previously recalled ambassadors and nullified agreements with countries that engage with Somaliland on a state-to-state basis.
If the United States moves toward recognition, it would represent one of the most significant diplomatic realignments in Africa in decades. It would not only grant Somaliland the international standing it has sought for over 30 years but also fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
As the Trump administration continues to navigate its foreign policy, Pham’s remarks at the London summit signal a potentially historic breakthrough for Somaliland. For Hargeisa, the emerging U.S. position offers a promise that its three-decade journey toward recognition may finally be nearing its destination, potentially redefining its role on the world stage and reshaping the future of the Horn of Africa.
