A new policy brief by the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs shows Somaliland at the heart of shifting alliances as the US-Israel war with Iran drives geopolitical divisions across the Horn of Africa
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran is reshaping security and economic dynamics across the Horn of Africa, with new analysis suggesting that Somaliland is emerging as a pivotal — and potentially vulnerable — player in the evolving regional order.
A policy brief by the Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs argues that the war is transforming the Red Sea corridor into a unified theater of geopolitical competition, placing territories like Somaliland at the center of shifting alliances and maritime strategy.
“The Horn… has transformed from a peripheral status to one of the fronts of Middle Eastern volatility,” wrote Mohammed Seid, the report’s author, warning that external rivalries are increasingly converging on the region.
A frontline on the Gulf of Aden
Situated along the Gulf of Aden near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Somaliland occupies one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors — a factor now magnified by the war.
The policy brief highlights how Iran’s asymmetric response to U.S.-Israeli military operations — including threats to blockade key shipping routes — could directly affect Somaliland’s coastal security environment.
“The Houthi… started to threaten the blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb,” Seid wrote, pointing to risks that could disrupt maritime trade and escalate military activity across the Red Sea basin.
For Somaliland, which has positioned itself as a stable maritime partner, such developments present both opportunity and exposure.
Strategic relevance — and risk
Somaliland’s growing ties with Israel and the United Arab Emirates are cited in the report as part of an emerging alignment seeking to reshape regional geopolitics.
That alignment, the analysis suggests, could elevate Somaliland’s international profile — particularly as global powers look for reliable partners along critical shipping lanes.
But the same positioning may also increase its vulnerability.
“The spillover of Middle Eastern conflict into the Horn… could shift the balance of power,” Seid warned, noting that escalating rivalries could draw in new actors and intensify competition over ports, bases and sea routes.
Maritime chokepoints and economic stakes
The war has already disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while threats to the Bab el-Mandeb risk compounding global supply chain instability.
For Somaliland, whose economy is closely tied to maritime trade through Berbera, such disruptions could have immediate consequences.
“Interruption of energy supply chains… disrupts electricity generation and fuels inflation,” Seid wrote, emphasizing the broader regional impact.
At the same time, Somaliland’s strategic coastline could become more valuable as alternative shipping and energy routes are explored.
Security threats beyond the sea
The report also raises concerns about expanding non-state actor networks, including potential coordination between the Houthi movement and Al-Shabaab.
Such linkages could heighten threats across coastal and inland areas, particularly if maritime routes are militarized or disrupted.
“The region is plunged with many sinister threats,” Seid wrote, highlighting the transnational nature of security challenges in the Horn.
Digital and infrastructure vulnerabilities
Another underappreciated risk involves submarine internet cables that run along the Red Sea — infrastructure critical to Somaliland and its neighbors.
“Iran and its proxy have frequently threatened to sabotage this critical infrastructure,” the report notes, warning that any disruption could affect financial systems, communications and governance.
A shifting geopolitical map
Perhaps most significantly, the policy brief frames Somaliland as part of a broader realignment that could redefine the Horn of Africa’s political landscape.
Seid describes an emerging divide shaped by competing visions for the region’s future, as external and regional powers recalibrate their positions in response to the war.
A region pulled into rival blocs
As the conflict deepens, analysts increasingly see the Horn of Africa being drawn into two opposing geopolitical camps.
The policy brief suggests that one bloc — comprising countries such as Somalia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Eritrea, Djibouti, Iran and Sudan — is largely focused on preserving existing borders and resisting major geopolitical shifts, including Somaliland’s recognition and Ethiopia’s ambitions for direct access to the sea.
In contrast, a counter-alignment appears to be taking shape around Somaliland and its partners — including Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia — advocating a reconfiguration of the regional order that reflects new political and economic realities.
This emerging divide, analysts say, is less about ideology than about competing visions for control over strategic waterways, infrastructure and influence.
“The war is accelerating a restructuring of alliances,” one regional expert said. “What we are seeing is the gradual formation of blocs that will shape the Horn’s future political geography.”
