Talks over Somaliland’s bid for recognition signal shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa
HARGEISA, Somaliland — More than three decades after restoring its independence from Somalia, Somaliland may be edging closer to the international recognition it has long sought.
According to regional officials and multiple diplomatic sources, the United States, Britain, Israel and the United Arab Emirates are among roughly 20 countries now considering formal recognition of Somaliland in the coming months — a move that could reshape alliances across the Horn of Africa and the wider Red Sea region.
Senior Somaliland officials say discussions have reached an advanced stage, with Hargeisa also expected to join the Abraham Accords — the U.S.-brokered framework that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states.
“Yes, there are a number of countries currently pushing this,” said a senior Somaliland official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private diplomacy. “Some of them include the list that has been published. Others prefer not to be identified for now.”
A Long Quest for Legitimacy
Somaliland, a former British protectorate, restored its independence in 1991 after the collapse of Somalia’s central government under dictator Mohamed Siad Barre. Since then, it has operated with its own currency, army, and democratic institutions — holding multiparty elections that Western observers have described as peaceful and credible.
Yet no country has formally recognized it. Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu insists that Somaliland remains part of Somalia under its provisional constitution — a claim rejected by Hargeisa.
That unresolved status has left Somaliland in diplomatic limbo: democratic and relatively stable, yet excluded from international institutions and aid frameworks that pass through Mogadishu.
Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro recently appealed to U.S. President Donald Trump, emphasizing the region’s democratic stability, counter-terrorism initiatives, and key strategic assets such as the Berbera port.
President Irro, elected last year, has also made recognition the cornerstone of his administration. “If the United States is interested in landing in Somaliland, they are welcome,” he told Bloomberg in July, adding that his government would be prepared to negotiate over “key minerals, including lithium,” as part of any partnership.
Strategic Geography and Rising Interest
Somaliland’s 850-kilometer coastline along the Gulf of Aden gives it commanding access to one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors. Roughly 12 percent of global trade transits the nearby Bab el-Mandeb Strait — waters increasingly threatened by Houthi rebel attacks launched from Yemen.
Its port city of Berbera has emerged as a strategic hub. The Emirati logistics giant DP World operates the port under a multimillion-dollar deal, and the adjacent airfield — upgraded with Emirati funding — can host military aircraft.
The United States has shown renewed interest in Somaliland’s location. In recent months, President Irro has met with U.S. Ambassador Richard Riley and Gen. Michael Langley, the head of U.S. Africa Command, during high-level visits to Hargeisa and Berbera.
While neither side has confirmed discussions over a U.S. base, analysts say Washington views Somaliland as a potential partner in countering piracy, terrorism, and Iran-aligned militias operating in the Red Sea.
“We discussed ways and means to cooperate on security, trade and regional stability,” Irro said in an interview. “We expect these discussions to bear fruit in the future.”
A State Department spokesperson said the United States “continues to recognize one Somalia” but values its “robust engagement with Somaliland authorities on democracy, development and security.”
Israel, the Emirates and the Red Sea Chessboard
Reports of Israeli and Emirati involvement in Somaliland’s recognition drive have added a new layer of intrigue. Haaretz and the Middle East Monitor reported that Israeli officials — with Emirati mediation — have discussed establishing a small naval or intelligence facility in Somaliland to help deter Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.
Neither Israel nor Somaliland has confirmed the reports. But analysts say such a move would align with Israel’s long-standing effort to expand its strategic presence around the Red Sea, where Iranian proxies have targeted commercial vessels.
“The idea of a listening post or small base in Somaliland fits Israel’s pattern of building forward positions in fragile regions,” said Michael Milstein, a former Israeli intelligence officer now with Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.
The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, has steadily expanded its maritime footprint from Berbera to Yemen’s Socotra archipelago, often in coordination with Israel since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Abu Dhabi has invested more than $400 million in Somaliland’s port and airport infrastructure.
“Abu Dhabi’s Red Sea ambitions are no longer commercial only — they’re strategic,” said Elham Mahmoud, a Gulf politics researcher at Qatar University. “Somaliland gives the Emirates and Israel a friendly, stable coastline close to Yemen and far from Iranian reach.”
Diplomatic Maneuvering in Washington and London
In Washington, Somaliland’s advocates have become more vocal. In December, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) introduced a bill urging the U.S. government to recognize Somaliland’s independence — the first such measure in Congress.
Former Trump administration officials, including Peter Pham, the onetime U.S. special envoy for Africa, have also pushed for recognition. “Somaliland’s democratic record and strategic location make it an obvious partner,” Pham said.
In the U.K., former defense secretary Gavin Williamson has called on a potential second Trump administration to “formally recognize Somaliland’s independence.”
Trump campaign aides have not publicly commented, but several former advisers say the move aligns with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and his desire to counter Chinese influence in Africa.
A Calculated Gamble — and a Historical Claim
For Somaliland, the recognition push offers opportunity. Diplomatic recognition could unlock access to international finance and formal treaties.
Still, in Hargeisa, optimism runs high. Streets are decorated with flags and murals celebrating what many residents see as an inevitable milestone.
“People here believe this is finally within reach,” said Amina Ismail, a political science lecturer at the University of Hargeisa. “The president speaks with confidence, and there is a sense that powerful countries are listening.”
Whether that optimism translates into formal recognition remains uncertain. Yet for many Somalilanders, the case for sovereignty is rooted in both history and experience.
A History of Statehood and Resilience
Somaliland’s modern identity traces back to the British Somaliland Protectorate, established in 1884. The territory gained independence on June 26, 1960, as the State of Somaliland, recognized by more than 30 countries, including the United States, Egypt, Ethiopia, France, and the Soviet Union.
Five days later, it voluntarily united with the former Italian-administered Trust Territory of Somalia to form the Somali Republic — a union that was never ratified by constitution and quickly turned contentious.
After years of repression and civil war under Siad Barre’s regime, Somaliland withdrew from the union in 1991, reasserting the sovereignty it had briefly held in 1960. Since then, it has built functioning democratic institutions, maintained internal peace, and held multiple competitive elections.
A 2005 African Union fact-finding mission, led by Deputy Chairperson Patrick Mazimhaka, called Somaliland’s case “historically unique and self-justified,” urging the AU to adopt a special approach rather than dismissing it as a precedent for secession elsewhere. The report concluded that the lack of recognition had unfairly turned Somaliland into a “pariah region,” despite its democratic progress.
As President Irro told a rally in Erigavo earlier this year, “We have built peace, democracy, and institutions without outside help. Now we ask the world to simply acknowledge what already exists.”
