The article “Somaliland elections give rise to questions about MoU, regional politics” discusses the recent presidential election in Somaliland, where Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, was elected with 64% of the vote. He represents the Waddani Party and will be sworn in on December 13, 2024.
His election raises questions about a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Somaliland and the Ethiopian government, as his stance on statehood and relationships with both Mogadishu and Ethiopia may change. He has expressed a desire to reopen dialogue with Mogadishu, contrasting with his predecessor.
Analyst Costantinos Berhutesfa suggests that a normalization of relations between Somaliland and Mogadishu could benefit regional stability, especially for Ethiopia. He indicates that this may lessen tensions involving Egypt and improve the geopolitical landscape in the region.
There are also speculations about the potential for the U.S. and UK to recognize Somaliland’s statehood, which could further impact Ethiopia’s interests in the area. Overall, the article suggests that Abdullahi’s presidency could shift regional dynamics and influence the future of the MoU.
The full article, originally published in The Reporter Ethiopia, is as follows:
Somaliland Elections Give Rise to Questions About MoU, Regional Politics
By Ashenafi Endale
The residents of Hargeisa took to the streets in celebration this week as the de facto state of Somaliland welcomed its new president-elect, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, commonly known as Irro.
Representing the Waddani Party, Irro won the presidential election after securing 64 percent of the vote, while incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi finished as runner-up with 35 percent, according to the Somaliland National Electoral Commission, which officially submitted provisional results of the presidential and party election to the constitutional Supreme Court on November 20, 2024.
Somaliland’s fourth presidential election was supposed to take place last year but had to be postponed reportedly due to a lack of budget.
Nonetheless, over one million registered voters cast their votes at around 2,000 polling stations this month before Abdullahi was declared the winner and Somaliland’s sixth head of government since it broke away from Somalia 33 years ago.
Abdullahi will be sworn in as president on December 13, 2024.
Following the announcement of the election results, outgoing president Muse Bihi met with the winner and addressed the nation. He pledged a smooth and peaceful transition of power. He also called on the people of Somaliland to support the new administration and uphold national unity.
‘’May your tenure bring peace, progress, and enduring success to our beloved nation. To my fellow citizens, I thank you for granting me the privilege to serve as your president. While my term comes to an end, my commitment to the betterment of our nation remains steadfast,” stated Muse Bihi.
He was elected in 2017, defeating Irro, to take his seat as Somaliland’s fifth president and serve a seven-year term.
The international community and election observers from different parts of the world stamped the election as ‘free and fair.’ The Ethiopian government also congratulated Irro in a statement. But Hargeisa is reportedly not happy with the results of the vote.
Abdullahi’s political career dates back to the Siad Barre regime, before Somaliland gained its de facto statehood in 1991, following the crumbling of the USSR, which also ended communist regimes in satellite states.
During the Siyad Barre regime, Abdullahi served as Somalia’s ambassador to the USSR, a position he maintained after Somaliland’s early independence years. Abdullahi then joined his family in Finland, who were exiled as a result of repression from Siad Barre. Irro also attained Finnish citizenship.
But Abdullahi eventually returned home. He was elected to the Somaliland parliament in the 2005 election, which was Somaliland’s first election since its de facto statehood in 1991. He represented the UCID political party, which is Somaliland’s first opposition party. Abdullahi served as the parliament speaker for years and is a strong supporter of the implementation of a one-man, one-vote election in Somaliland, which he recommends in Mogadishu, where residents have never voted to elect their leaders and clan-based election dominates.
Implications for the MoU
Abdullahi is known for his moderate position regarding the MoU signed by Muse Bihi and PM Abiy Ahmed. However, Irro maintains unwavering commitment when it comes to Somaliland’s quest for statehood.
Irro did not reject or criticize the MoU during his campaign, instead using diplomatic language when addressing the sensitive issue. Many see his reluctance to broach the matter directly as a sign of his intent to reverse the MoU, while others claim he is in favor of reunification with Somalia.
Others still argue he has other plans, forecasting the president-elect is looking to persuade Mogadishu diplomatically to secure Somalia’s consent to grant Somaliland statehood recognition. Irro has previously stated that his administration will reopen communication and dialogue with Mogadishu, which Muse Bihi maintained closed.
Irro sees negotiations and consents from Mogadishu as critical in securing Hargeisa’s interests.
Abdullahi is also known for maintaining his support for Taiwan, a breakaway state from China, also struggling for full recognition.
Constantinos Berhutesfa (PhD) is a former AU official and geopolitical analyst who has worked closely with Abdullahi.
“The election of a new president in Somaliland probably might bring changes to the MoU. During his campaigns, the new president stated that resuming communications with Mogadishu is essential to secure consent regarding statehood recognition,” said Costantinos.
Following the elections, Irro revealed intentions to review the MoU signed by his predecessor, stating that he does not know the full details of the deal.
Constantinos is optimistic in his expectations for Abdullahi’s term in office and what it will mean for regional politics and tensions.
“I believe the new president’s position is very good for Ethiopia. Ethiopia has faced accusations and isolation in the international diplomatic arena following the MoU. If the new president normalizes things with Mogadishu, it will serve Ethiopia too to normalize with Somalia. This eventually will de-escalate the tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia. Somalia will back down from the alliance with Eritrea, Egypt, and Turkey,” he foresees.
Costantinos observes normalizing relations with Mogadishu is essential to fend off Egypt.
“Egypt has brought its military to our doors following the MoU. If the new president normalizes relations with Mogadishu, Egypt will have no excuse to meddle in the Horn’s affairs. The Arab League has also availed support to Somalia following the MoU. But now, the League will also normalize relations with Ethiopia,” he said.
Constantinos describes Abdullahi as a “very stable politician” and expressed his hope that he will be able to persuade Mogadishu and also find a way to realize Ethiopia’s ambitions to access the sea through Somaliland.
“Most likely Somaliland might drop the idea of offering a naval base to Ethiopia and instead focus on offering us commercial port access. Basically, the need for a naval base has become irrelevant in today’s context of sea forces. Naval bases have been replaced by aircraft carrier ships, for the most part,” he said.
Constantinos foresees Irro will also be able to have an influence on the newly-forged alliance between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia.
“In fact, Egypt’s agenda will not go away soon. Ethiopia has not reduced Egypt’s water flow but Egypt demands an agreement on the water. They change the point of argument from time to time. They demand Ethiopia to uphold the colonial-era agreement. That was an agreement drafted by Britain, the colonial power at the time. Britain did so to protect its large-scale farms in Egypt. It was not an agreement signed by free countries. Ethiopia has no interest in reducing the flow of water,” he said.
Reports from the UK and US indicate that their politicians, including President-elect Donald Trump, are in favor of recognizing Somaliland’s statehood and establishing a military base there.
Constantinos believes this bodes well for Ethiopia, which has deep ties with Hargeisa.
“Somaliland’s economy, trade, livestock supply, and everything depends on Ethiopia. Somaliland cannot survive without Ethiopia. The Somali clans in Ethiopia are similar to the ones in Somaliland,” he said.
