Somaliland’s strategic position along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is rapidly commanding global attention as Middle East tensions intensify. Following Israel’s recognition and amid escalating geopolitical competition, the partially recognized state is poised to influence critical trade routes and reshape regional security dynamics
By Venetia Menzies | Berbera, Somaliland
BERBERA, Somaliland — As missiles arc across the Middle East and global shipping routes face renewed threats, a largely unrecognized territory on the Horn of Africa is emerging as an unlikely geopolitical pivot point.
“When Iranian-backed Houthi fighters entered the Middle East war… they warned that ‘closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is among our options,’” writes Venetia Menzies in her field report published in the London-based The Sunday Times. The warning drew attention not only to the narrow maritime chokepoint linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, but also to the territory that overlooks it: Somaliland.
“Standing watch over the Bab al-Mandeb’s southern gate is a country that does not officially exist,” Menzies observes — a paradox that increasingly defines Somaliland’s place in global affairs.
A Strategic Crossroads Ignored No Longer
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait — often called the “Gate of Tears” — is one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors, linking Asian and European trade via the Suez Canal. While global focus has long centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation of conflict involving Yemen’s Houthi movement has shifted attention westward.
From the port city of Berbera, Somaliland sits within range of Houthi missile capabilities, positioning it as both a potential security partner and a frontline state in a widening regional confrontation.
“After 35 years in the diplomatic wilderness, Somaliland’s location… has thrust its battle for recognition into an unexpected spotlight,” Menzies writes.
Though it maintains its own government, military, elections and currency, Somaliland remains internationally unrecognized and is officially considered part of Somalia.
Recognition Reshapes the Diplomatic Landscape
That status shifted in December when Israel formally recognized Somaliland — a move that officials in Hargeisa hailed as historic.
“Somaliland has long been an unrecognized country,” said Khadar Hussein Abdi. “Now we are a partially recognized country, transitioning into getting full recognition globally.”
The recognition has triggered both optimism and anxiety. While it opens pathways for diplomatic engagement and investment, it has also intensified regional tensions. Egypt denounced the move, while Saudi Arabia and Turkey deepened ties with Somalia.
Meanwhile, speculation has grown over potential U.S. and Israeli security cooperation in Berbera — a prospect Somaliland officials publicly downplay but do not entirely dismiss.
“We aren’t taking anything off the table,” Abdi said, even as he rejected claims of imminent foreign military bases.
Berbera: From Colonial Outpost to Strategic Prize
At the center of this geopolitical recalibration lies Berbera’s deep-water port, operated by DP World.
Its strategic value is not new. During the colonial era, Berbera served as a supply hub for British forces safeguarding imperial trade routes. Today, its modernized infrastructure and proximity to key shipping lanes have revived its importance.
Access to Berbera could provide the United States with an alternative to its base in Djibouti, where a growing Chinese presence has raised strategic concerns. For Israel, it offers proximity to Yemen and a vantage point for monitoring Houthi activity.
But the growing interest has also unsettled locals.
“With speculation over a potential Israeli and U.S. presence mounting… some at the port have been feeling trepidation that their hard-won peace may be weaponized in someone else’s war,” Menzies notes.
Balancing Opportunity and Risk
For Somaliland, recognition carries transformative economic potential. Officials say the country is rich in critical minerals — including lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements — that are vital to global supply chains.
“We are already receiving business inquiries,” said Joseph Oguta. “In just over three years we’ve brought in 60 new investors.”
A proposed agreement with Ethiopia — granting sea access in exchange for recognition — could further expand Somaliland’s economic reach to a market of more than 100 million people.
Yet risks remain acute. The territory lacks advanced missile defense systems and faces threats from regional militant groups, including Al-Shabaab.
“Somaliland would not compromise on its principles,” said Nimco Ali. “There has always been a middle ground — co-operating as a global security partner, but not becoming a pawn.”
A Resilient Society Under Constraint
Despite limited international support, Somaliland has built a relatively stable political system and functioning institutions since restoring independence in 1991.
But the costs of non-recognition are evident. The territory is excluded from direct World Bank funding, and about 60 percent of its population lacks access to healthcare.
“There’s no point investing in minerals when the people lack basic healthcare,” said Idil Ismail.
Few figures embody Somaliland’s resilience more than Edna Adan Ismail, who built the country’s first maternity hospital using her own savings.
“Somaliland picked itself up from a level of total destruction after it was left for dead,” she said.
The Geopolitics of Recognition
Somalia has condemned Somaliland’s recognition as illegal and continues to assert sovereignty over the region. Officials in Mogadishu have warned that foreign military presence in Somaliland could escalate conflict.
At the same time, donor funding dynamics are shifting. According to local officials, aid has increasingly been redirected through Somalia’s federal government, limiting Somaliland’s access.
“Mogadishu will turn off the tap for funding,” Idil Ismail warned. “They will use it as a tool to squeeze Somaliland into submission.”
A Strategic Future Taking Shape
Even as tensions rise, Somaliland’s leadership is pressing forward with diplomatic outreach. Officials say new ties with Israel could open doors in Washington and beyond.
“We are going to engage with the U.S. and many more countries that have close relationships to Israel,” said Mohamed Hagi. “We have a lot more to offer.”
For now, Somaliland remains a geopolitical anomaly: a functioning state without formal recognition, positioned at one of the world’s most contested crossroads.
As Menzies writes, its story is no longer peripheral. It is becoming central to the evolving architecture of power in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.
