Against the backdrop of Iran’s gradual weakening, a new Sunni coalition is beginning to take form in the Middle East. At its center stands Turkey, seeking regional leadership and signaling a reassessment of the nuclear option
By Yoni Ben Menachem, JCSFA
Jerusalem — Senior Israeli officials say they are increasingly alarmed by what they describe as a structural shift in the Middle East’s balance of power: the emergence of a Sunni political and security alignment led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at a moment when Iran’s regional standing appears to be in sustained decline.
Israeli security assessments point to Turkey’s expanding regional footprint — diplomatically, militarily and ideologically — combined with visible backing from Donald Trump, as accelerating Ankara’s ambition to position itself as a leading power in a post-Iran-dominant Middle East. That ambition, officials say, now includes renewed public discussion of nuclear capabilities.
Turkey’s nuclear messaging resurfaces
Erdoğan first raised the prospect of nuclear weapons in 2019, declaring at a rally of his ruling Justice and Development Party in Sivas that Turkey could not “accept a situation in which major powers possess nuclear weapons while Turkey is denied such capabilities.” He explicitly referenced Israel, arguing that its presumed nuclear deterrent shields it from external pressure and deters adversaries.
That message was echoed on Feb. 9, 2026, by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in an interview with CNN. While emphasizing that Turkey has no active nuclear weapons program and remains a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Fidan said Ankara is examining nuclear capability as a “high-level strategic issue” within a broader regional context.
“Turkey is looking at the larger picture,” one Israeli defense official said. “Even without a weapons program, the rhetoric itself is a signal of intent and status.”
Turkey is currently focused on building its first of three planned civilian nuclear power plants, but Israeli officials say the political messaging carries strategic weight well beyond the civilian realm.
From Iranian firewall to Sunni wall
For decades, Israel’s security doctrine has centered on countering Iran and its network of proxies across Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. But Israeli diplomats now argue that a different challenge is emerging: a coordinated Sunni realignment that could constrain Israel’s freedom of action without direct confrontation.
According to Israeli assessments, Ankara is working to consolidate Sunni states — including Egypt and Saudi Arabia — into a broader alignment capable of redirecting regional momentum against Israel. The aim, officials say, is to replace the long-standing “Iranian firewall” with a unified Sunni diplomatic wall surrounding Israel.
In Africa, Israeli officials describe what they call a Turkish-led “shadow war,” stretching from Libya through Sudan to Somalia. Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are reportedly coordinating their response to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a move they view as destabilizing Red Sea security dynamics.
“This is about shaping the next regional order,” said a senior Israeli diplomat. “Turkey wants to lead it.”
Iran’s erosion and the regional vacuum
Israeli defense sources say much of the Middle East now views Iran’s weakening as irreversible. Tehran’s power centers in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza were severely damaged during last year’s 12-day war, while Iran continues to grapple with deep economic crisis, food and water shortages, and sustained U.S. sanctions pressure.
Despite Iran’s refusal to meet U.S. demands on its nuclear program, missile development and proxy networks, Israeli officials believe its ability to dictate regional outcomes has diminished. The vacuum — stretching from the Red Sea to the Persian Gulf — is increasingly being filled by Sunni actors coordinating their interests.
That emerging constellation includes Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Pakistan. Some are linked through military cooperation frameworks; others share overlapping objectives in preventing renewed Iranian entrenchment and expanding influence in Syria, Lebanon and the Red Sea basin.
Normalization with Saudi Arabia stalls
Israeli diplomatic officials say the rise of this Sunni alignment is complicating prospects for normalization with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh had previously examined joining the Abraham Accords with seriousness, but has adopted a more rigid posture amid the war in Gaza and Israel’s refusal to commit to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Saudi Arabia’s recent and unusually public dispute with the United Arab Emirates over developments in southern Yemen underscores shifting dynamics within the Sunni camp. Abu Dhabi, the pioneer of normalization with Israel, now finds itself increasingly isolated in Arab public opinion.
“Riyadh is positioning itself as the central Sunni address,” one Israeli diplomat said. “That inevitably affects Israel’s regional integration.”
Pakistan’s deterrent role
Pakistan’s inclusion in the emerging Sunni constellation is viewed in Jerusalem as particularly significant. As a nuclear-armed state that has provided formal security assurances to Saudi Arabia, Islamabad alters Riyadh’s strategic calculus.
“If Saudi Arabia can rely on Pakistan’s deterrent umbrella,” a senior Israeli defense official said, “the incentive to seek strategic depth through normalization with Israel is reduced.”
Israeli officials warn that coordinated action by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey — even absent a formal alliance — would force Israel to reassess both its military doctrine and its freedom of action.
“Any Israeli move takes on a different meaning if three major Sunni powers are coordinating their positions,” one official said.
A widening gap with Ankara
At the center of the emerging regional architecture stands Turkey, which Israeli analysts see as poised to become a leading force in shaping a revised Middle Eastern order. Ankara’s leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood-aligned axis, combined with its growing influence in the Palestinian arena, is viewed as narrowing Israel’s room for maneuver with Gulf states.
Even if the coalition is not formally directed against Israel, officials say, its existence alone constrains the diplomatic and military latitude Jerusalem has long enjoyed.
The Middle East, Israeli analysts conclude, is entering a phase of strategic reconfiguration. Iran remains a central actor, but it is no longer the sole force defining the rules of the regional game. In its place, a Sunni coalition is consolidating — fluid, pragmatic and increasingly influential.
For Israel, the challenge may be less about immediate confrontation than about long-term strategic constraint.
