An analysis published by Israel’s Makor Rishon (in Hebrew) says Turkey is expanding its military, economic, and diplomatic influence across Africa and Syria while identifying Somaliland as a key strategic partner in Israel’s efforts to strengthen Red Sea security
By Saxafi Media Staff
HARGEISA — Turkey is quietly building a long-term strategy to expand its military, economic, and diplomatic influence from the Horn of Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean, reshaping the regional balance of power while Western attention remains focused on conflicts in the Middle East, according to a new analysis published by Israel’s Makor Rishon.
In an article published on 16 July 2026, reporter David Zevuloni argues that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is taking advantage of declining Western influence in Africa and instability in Syria to establish Turkey as a dominant regional power. The analysis also highlights Somaliland’s growing strategic significance, particularly as Israel deepens ties with Hargeisa following its recognition of Somaliland in December 2025.
Turkey’s African Strategy Extends Beyond Somalia
According to Zevuloni, Turkey’s engagement with Africa has evolved into a comprehensive geopolitical strategy combining military cooperation, economic investment, humanitarian outreach, and diplomatic expansion.
He traces Ankara’s renewed focus on Africa to 2005, when Turkey declared the “Year of Africa,” leading to a rapid increase in diplomatic missions, expanded Turkish Airlines routes, and closer ties with the African Union.
The article identifies Somalia as the centerpiece of Turkey’s African strategy following President Erdoğan’s landmark visit to Mogadishu in 2011.
“Today, Turkey operates its largest military base outside its borders in the capital, trains thousands of local soldiers, participates in operations against jihadist organizations, and invests in civilian infrastructure, ports, airports, and energy sources,” Zevuloni writes.
Control of Strategic Maritime Routes
The analysis argues that Turkey’s expanding presence in Somalia reflects its broader interest in securing access to one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.
Somalia occupies a strategic position overlooking the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean, areas that have become increasingly important following attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi movement.
According to Zevuloni, Ankara combines military strength with long-term diplomatic engagement.
“The Turkish presence relies on two complementary tools.”
He describes these as:
- Hard power, including military bases, defense cooperation, and exports of Bayraktar unmanned aerial vehicles.
- Soft power, including schools, humanitarian assistance, cultural programs, religious outreach, and expanding air connectivity.
“In this way, it cultivates long-term political and social ties, which are also intended to withstand future crises and challenges.”
Somaliland Seen as an Emerging Strategic Partner
One of the article’s key observations concerns Somaliland’s growing importance in Israel’s regional strategy.
Zevuloni notes that Jerusalem has expanded its engagement across Africa while seeking reliable partners capable of contributing to Red Sea security.
Within that framework, Somaliland is presented as an increasingly significant actor.
“The importance of the relations that Israel is developing with Somaliland, which is seen by many analysts as a possible strategic partner for strengthening the security of the Red Sea and curbing the threats from the Houthis and jihadist organizations operating in the region, is taken into account.”
The analysis suggests that Somaliland’s location along the Gulf of Aden gives it strategic relevance as competition intensifies among regional and global powers.
Competition Rather Than Confrontation
Although Turkish and Israeli interests increasingly overlap in the Horn of Africa, Zevuloni argues that the relationship is better understood as geopolitical competition than direct confrontation.
“It is more accurate to say that it expresses two different perceptions of the region and the role that each country seeks to play on the African continent.”
According to the article, Israel seeks to leverage its strengths in technology, water management, agriculture, healthcare, and innovation to build durable partnerships across Africa.
Turkey, meanwhile, aims to position itself as an alternative partner capable of filling the vacuum left by declining French and American influence on the continent.
Turkey Expands Its Presence in Syria
Beyond Africa, the analysis argues that Ankara is simultaneously accelerating its influence inside Syria.
Recent visits by senior Turkish naval officials to the port of Latakia, combined with reports of new Turkish radar installations and investments in infrastructure, education, and local governance, are presented as evidence of Turkey’s long-term strategic ambitions.
According to Zevuloni, these developments suggest Ankara is moving beyond temporary military deployments toward a permanent regional presence.
“Turkey continues to establish its presence beyond its southern border and is gradually turning a series of military interventions into a project of permanent influence in Syria.”
A Changing Regional Balance
The article concludes that Turkey’s expanding footprint across Africa and Syria represents one of the most significant geopolitical shifts currently underway.
Rather than relying on dramatic announcements, Ankara is steadily creating facts on the ground through military infrastructure, diplomatic engagement, logistics, and economic partnerships.
For Israel, Zevuloni argues, the challenge will be adapting to an increasingly complex strategic environment extending from the Horn of Africa to the Levant.
“The struggle for the next balance of power will not be fought in just one arena, but will extend from Africa to the heart of the Middle East.”
The analysis underscores the growing international attention being paid to the Horn of Africa, where Somaliland’s strategic location continues to elevate its importance amid intensifying competition among regional and global powers.
