Djibouti’s Nagad-Loyada/Lowyaddo-Zeila-Borama Road Project is a pretext for annexing Somaliland’s Zeila. Historical precedent suggests potential expansionist motives.
Key Takeaways:
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Djibouti’s President Guelleh has a documented history of seeking control over Somaliland’s western regions.
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The Nagad-Loyada-Borama road project raises concerns about economic and territorial exploitation.
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Somaliland’s leadership has yet to clarify its stance on Djibouti’s investment proposals.
Hargeisa, Somaliland — Tensions between Somaliland and Djibouti have resurfaced following Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro’s recent visit to Djibouti, where President Ismail Omar Guelleh reportedly proposed large-scale investments in Zeila and other western coastal areas of Somaliland. The discussions, described as “ambiguous” by observers, have raised concerns over Djibouti’s long-standing territorial ambitions in the region.
A History of Annexation Attempts
The controversy traces back to 1991, when Guelleh, then head of Djibouti’s secret service, orchestrated an incursion into Somaliland’s Awdal region during the Somaliland War of Independence. Backed by the United Somali Front (USF)—a militia predominantly composed of Issa clansmen from Djibouti—the operation aimed to annex the so-called “Zeyla-Loyada-Garissa triangle.” The attempt was swiftly crushed by the Somali National Movement (SNM), but the episode left a lasting legacy of mistrust.
Guelleh, who later ascended to Djibouti’s presidency, has long been accused of harboring expansionist designs. In the late 1980s, Issa clan elders in Djibouti reportedly discussed the annexation of Zeila and Lughaya as part of a broader vision for a “Greater Djibouti” or “Issa-land,” extending from the Red Sea to Dire Dawa. These ambitions were rooted in historical rivalries between the Issa and Isaaq clans, with the former alleging discrimination under Somaliland’s governance.
The Nagad-Loyada/Lowyaddo-Zeila-Borama Road Project: A Trojan Horse?
The latest flashpoint is the Nagad–Loyada/Lowyaddo-Saylac-Borama Road Upgrade Project—Phase I, funded by the African Development Bank under the Horn of Africa Initiative. Critics argue that the project, while framed as regional integration, could serve as a conduit for Djibouti to exert economic and demographic influence over Somaliland’s western territories.
- Economic Siphoning: The road’s upgrade is expected to funnel trade and resources toward Djibouti’s ports, reinforcing its dominance as a regional logistics hub.
- Demographic Shifts: Fears persist that Djibouti may exploit the project to populate Zeila with its nationals, altering the area’s ethnic composition.
Somaliland officials have remained cautious in their public statements, neither outright rejecting nor endorsing Guelleh’s investment proposals. However, the lack of clarity has fueled speculation about backroom negotiations.
Regional Implications
The situation underscores the fragile geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, where infrastructure projects often double as instruments of soft power. Djibouti’s strategic interests—bolstered by its ports and alliances with global powers—clash with Somaliland’s quest for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Historical precedent suggests that Somaliland will resist any perceived encroachment. In 1995, another USF-led attempt to detach the Awdal region was quashed by SNM forces after eight weeks of fighting.
What’s Next?
As the Nagad-Loyada-Borama project progresses, Somaliland faces a delicate balancing act: leveraging regional cooperation while safeguarding its borders. Meanwhile, Guelleh’s overtures to Zeila signal that Djibouti’s ambitions in the region remain undiminished.
For now, the question lingers: Is this a genuine offer of investment, or a veiled bid for annexation? The answer may determine the future of Somaliland’s western frontier.
