As Red Sea tensions escalate and Houthi attacks threaten global shipping, Israeli strategists are reassessing Somaliland’s role as a stable, pro-Western actor at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden. With growing UAE, U.S., and Taiwanese engagement in Hargeisa, Somaliland has become a strategic chessboard square Israel can no longer ignore
Tel Aviv and Hargeisa – As missile fire and naval clashes reshape the Red Sea theater, an unlikely question has begun circulating in Israel’s security and diplomatic circles: Should Israel recognize Somaliland?
The Republic of Somaliland remains unrecognized by the international community. Yet in a region increasingly defined by proxy conflict, maritime insecurity and great-power competition, Somaliland has reemerged as a potentially valuable — and controversial — strategic partner.
“In the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea — a region whose security-strategic importance to Israel has once again become apparent in the past two years — Somaliland is establishing itself as an independent, pro-Western state,” wrote Israeli analyst Asher Lubotsky in a November policy briefing. “Its ultimate goal is to gain international recognition and establish alliances with countries that will assist it against its enemy: the Somali government of Mogadishu.”
That ambition now intersects with Israel’s own dilemmas: expanding its regional footprint while avoiding diplomatic and geopolitical backlash.
A state that exists — but is not recognized
Somaliland occupies the northwestern part of what is internationally recognized as Somalia. It restored independence in 1991 after the collapse of Somalia’s central government, following years of brutal conflict and repression.
Unlike southern Somalia, which has struggled with insurgency, clan warfare and jihadist violence, Somaliland has over the past three decades built a functioning political system. It holds regular elections, maintains its own security forces and runs a multi-party democratic structure.
“Since its de facto independence in 1991, Somaliland has been the antithesis of what is happening in Somalia,” Lubotsky wrote. “Its security situation is benign, its internal arena is stable, and there is no significant jihadist activity.”
The territory’s stability, analysts say, stems from its distinct colonial history under British rule, its dominant Isaaq clan base and its relative geographic distance from Somalia’s main conflict zones.
In 2024, Somaliland held elections that resulted in a peaceful change of government — a rarity in the region. Its new leadership under President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro has intensified efforts for international recognition, even declaring in November that Somaliland now exercises “full control over its airspace” and would no longer recognize visas issued by authorities in Mogadishu.
Why Somaliland matters to Israel
For Israeli strategists, Somaliland’s appeal lies not only in its stability — but in its geography.
Located at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, opposite Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, Somaliland sits near one of the world’s most volatile and economically vital waterways.
“Today, the distance between Somaliland’s waters and territory and the Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen is approximately 300 to 500 kilometers,” Lubotsky noted. “Its territory has the potential to be a forward base… offensively and to thwart Houthi attacks at sea or using drones.”
As Israeli and Western forces confront repeated Houthi attacks on international shipping, access to territory near the Yemeni coastline has taken on renewed significance.
Several analysts have even drawn comparisons to Israel’s deep defense partnership with Azerbaijan — which provided strategic depth against Iran — suggesting Somaliland could serve a parallel function in the Red Sea arena.
“Somaliland may be the equivalent brick for Israel against the Houthi threat,” Lubotsky wrote.
Courting the West — and Israel
In recent years, Somaliland has expanded ties with pro-Western governments and key Israeli allies.
The United Arab Emirates has invested heavily in Berbera port, turning it into a growing logistics hub. Taiwan has developed formal ties with Hargeisa and invested in critical minerals and infrastructure. American military and congressional delegations have visited the territory, exploring its potential as a strategic partner.
According to Lubotsky, Somaliland has even signaled openness to joining the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states.
“In talks with American officials and in media messages, it makes clear its immediate readiness to enter the Abraham Accords,” he wrote.
Public sentiment within Somaliland appears generally favorable toward Israel, officials and observers say, though it is not without debate — particularly in light of the past two years of war in Gaza and regional tensions.
The case for — and against — recognition
Despite its openness to Israeli partnership, Somaliland does not seek recognition from Israel first. Its primary target is Washington.
“For Somaliland, the most coveted prize is American recognition,” Lubotsky wrote, arguing that U.S. recognition could trigger a cascade of support from other Western states.
But Washington remains hesitant. For decades, U.S. policy has rested on the principle of a unified Somalia. Recognizing Somaliland risks antagonizing Mogadishu — an American-backed government fighting al-Shabaab — and could set a precedent for other secessionist movements in Africa.
“Recognition of Somaliland would be seen as an American betrayal,” Lubotsky warned, potentially destabilizing Somalia and encouraging other breakaway regions like Puntland or Jubaland.
Israel faces a similar dilemma.
On one hand, Israel’s alignment with the UAE — Somaliland’s major backer — strengthens the argument for deeper ties. On the other, major regional players such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia oppose Somaliland’s recognition. Turkey, a close ally of Somalia’s central government, is staunchly against it.
“There is a more significant consideration for Israel,” Lubotsky wrote. “Israeli recognition of Somaliland that is not accompanied by American recognition may have a negative effect that will harm both Israel and Somaliland.”
A unilateral Israeli move, he suggested, could provoke backlash in the Muslim world and potentially turn Somaliland into a diplomatic battleground — making it harder, not easier, to expand Israel’s normalization efforts.
Cooperation without recognition
Rather than rushing to formal diplomatic recognition, Lubotsky argues that Israel should pursue what he calls cooperation “below the threshold of recognition.”
This approach would include:
- Quiet security cooperation
- Economic partnerships, especially in minerals and infrastructure
- The opening of interest offices (instead of embassies)
- Possible recognition of Somaliland travel documents
- Joint lobbying efforts in Washington
“These are steps that will avoid the potential risks associated with official recognition,” he wrote, “while helping both sides advance their essential interests.”
Such arrangements are not unprecedented. Several countries maintain unofficial representations in Somaliland, pursuing trade and security relations without offering formal diplomatic recognition.
A strategic asset — but at a price
For Israel, Somaliland represents opportunity and risk in equal measure.
On one level, it fits neatly into Israel’s evolving strategy of building regional partnerships along maritime and strategic corridors. It offers proximity to Yemen, access to the Horn of Africa and potential for both intelligence and logistical cooperation.
On another, recognizing Somaliland too early — or alone — could complicate Israel’s relations with key Arab partners, unsettle its regional normalization efforts and create diplomatic friction with major powers like China and Egypt.
“Israel should work to expand cooperation with this entity,” Lubotsky concluded, “while cooperating with the United Arab Emirates and the United States.”
But he added a note of strategic caution:
“As long as the United States does not recognize Somaliland, Israel should not act alone on this official level.”
Waiting below the radar
For now, both sides appear to be operating carefully — building unofficial channels while avoiding headline-making moves.
Somaliland wants recognition but may prefer quiet progress over a dramatic announcement that could trigger regional blowback. Israel, meanwhile, appears to see Somaliland as a potential asset — but one that must be handled with diplomatic precision.
In the complex chessboard of the Red Sea, it seems, Somaliland is no longer just a peripheral player — but a square both sides are eyeing carefully.
