Ethiopia’s Somali Region leader says Somaliland’s progress is strengthening cross-border trade, underscoring deep commercial ties while warning of rising geopolitical tensions and backing Ethiopia’s push for sea access
ADDIS ABABA — The president of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State has offered a cautiously supportive view of Somaliland’s pursuit of international recognition, emphasizing deep economic ties while warning that rising geopolitical competition and opposition to Somaliland’s recognition bid could destabilize the wider Horn of Africa.
In an interview with The Reporter, Mustafe Mohammed Omer said Somaliland remains a vital economic partner for his region, particularly as a trade corridor linking Ethiopia to global markets.
“Our region has a good relationship with Somaliland. Most of our trade goes via Somaliland,” he said. “The northern part of the Somali region has especially strong relations with Somaliland via trade in livestock and other goods.”
Economic interdependence and cautious optimism
Mustafe described Somaliland’s push for international recognition as potentially beneficial for Ethiopia’s Somali region, given the close commercial ties between the two.
“Any good thing that comes Somaliland’s way will be good for the Somali region too,” he said.
Trade flows across the border — especially livestock and informal commerce — underpin livelihoods on both sides, making stability in Somaliland a matter of economic importance for eastern Ethiopia.
However, Mustafe issued a clear warning about the risks of escalation.
“If other forces who oppose Somaliland recognition resort to conflict, they will try to expand the conflict to the Somali region as well,” he said, pointing to cross-border clashes reported in recent years as evidence of those vulnerabilities.
He emphasized that while foreign policy decisions rest with Ethiopia’s federal government, regional authorities play a critical role in maintaining stability.
“Our main role as a region is preventing cross-border conflicts from happening. We are doing that,” he said.
Foreign rivalry and security concerns
Mustafe also addressed the growing involvement of external powers in the Horn of Africa, particularly the expanding presence of Turkey and Egypt in neighboring Somalia.
“Foreign powers are competing in our region of the Horn. The primary impact of these foreign forces is disrupting the peace and stability of the Horn region,” he said.
He argued that such involvement often undermines Ethiopia’s national interests, citing risks ranging from proxy conflicts to disruptions of trade routes and port access.
“These foreign forces work to weaken Ethiopia, not to strengthen Ethiopia,” Mustafe said.
He also warned of indirect security threats, including the infiltration of extremist groups.
“At different times, these foreign forces are coming in the form of Al-Shabaab, ISIS and other terrorist forces,” he said, adding that attempts to penetrate the Somali region have so far been contained.
Security analysts say such claims reflect broader regional anxieties about hybrid threats — including armed groups, information campaigns and efforts to inflame ethnic or religious tensions.
Sea access as a strategic priority
On Ethiopia’s long-standing ambition to secure direct access to the sea, Mustafe was unequivocal in his support, framing it as a transformative national objective.
“Having sea access is a huge benefit for Ethiopia. It will be a big pillar, a big legacy of this generation,” he said.
Landlocked since the early 1990s, Ethiopia has relied heavily on neighboring ports for trade. Mustafe suggested that direct access would significantly enhance the country’s economic and geopolitical standing.
“With sea access, it will be very influential,” he said. “Having sea access on top of all this will make Ethiopia a very strong economy.”
He added that the Somali region stands ready to support federal efforts to secure such access.
A region at the crossroads
Mustafe’s remarks reflect the increasingly complex dynamics shaping the Horn of Africa, where economic interdependence, political ambitions and external rivalries intersect.
For Ethiopia’s Somali region, Somaliland represents both an economic lifeline and a potential flashpoint — depending on how regional and international actors respond to its evolving status.
As geopolitical competition intensifies, the region’s stability may hinge on whether economic cooperation can outpace political tensions.
