Supportive Remarks by Mohamed Hussein Roble stir fresh debate over Somaliland’s independence drive
HARGEISA, Somaliland — Somaliland’s president has praised former Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble for remarks that appeared to support Somaliland’s quest for international recognition, drawing a sharp rebuke from officials in Mogadishu and reigniting debate over one of the Horn of Africa’s most contentious political questions.
Speaking in Burao, the second capital of Somaliland, President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro, who was elected in November last year, said on Saturday that Roble’s recent comments amounted to an acknowledgment of Somaliland’s right to self-determination. He described them as a rare moment of candor from a senior Somali politician who has served at the heart of Mogadishu’s government.
“I congratulate those Somali politicians who have acknowledged Somaliland’s strides in development and stability, chief among them former Prime Minister Roble,” Irro said, adding that “To those who remain envious of Somaliland’s progress and speak of undermining it with insecurity or threats, we urge them to follow the example of those choosing the path of reason and peace.”
Roble, who served as Somalia’s prime minister between 2020 and 2022, caused a stir last week when he publicly accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of obstructing Somaliland’s aspirations. Speaking at a press conference in Mogadishu, Roble urged Somaliland to “keep moving forward,” a phrase that resonated widely across Somali political circles and was seized upon in Hargeisa as a tacit endorsement of independence.
The reaction in Mogadishu was immediate. Somalia’s defense minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, denounced the former premier’s remarks as “shameful” and a betrayal of Somalia’s territorial integrity.
“It is disgraceful for a former prime minister to support efforts that threaten the unity of the Somali nation,” Fiqi said, dismissing Roble as a political figure “whose words carry no weight.”
Somaliland restored independence from Somalia in 1991 after the collapse of Siad Barre’s military regime, establishing its own government, army, and currency. While the territory has functioned with relative stability for more than three decades—building institutions, holding multiple elections, and avoiding much of the violence that plagues southern Somalia—it has failed to secure recognition from any country.
That lack of recognition has not dimmed its ambitions. Successive Somaliland leaders have campaigned vigorously for statehood, arguing that the region has demonstrated a level of governance and stability that stands in stark contrast to Somalia’s political turmoil. International partners, including Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates, have deepened economic and security ties with Hargeisa, further complicating the regional picture.
For many in Somaliland, Roble’s remarks are significant not because they alter the diplomatic equation—Mogadishu remains firmly opposed to Somaliland’s recognition as an independent nation—but because they break a long-standing taboo among Somali politicians. Publicly acknowledging Somaliland’s successes, let alone hinting at its right to independence, has often been framed by Somalia’s political class as tantamount to betrayal.
President Irro suggested that some in Mogadishu go further than rhetorical opposition, alleging that Somali politicians have even floated the idea of backing extremist groups to destabilize Somaliland. “There are politicians in Somalia who do not want peace or stability in Somaliland,” Irro said, vowing that such threats would not weaken his government’s resolve.
Analysts say the episode illustrates the fragile balance that continues to define politics in the Horn of Africa. “What we’re seeing is the widening of fault lines within Somali politics over Somaliland,” said a Western diplomat based in Nairobi, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Roble’s comments may not carry formal weight, but symbolically they show that Mogadishu’s position is less monolithic than it appears.”
Washington-based experts say the controversy is also being closely watched in U.S. policy circles, where Somaliland’s potential role in regional security has become part of a larger strategic conversation.
“Roble’s statement matters less in Mogadishu and more in Washington,” said Michael Woldemariam, a Horn of Africa scholar at Boston University and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “For U.S. policymakers, it highlights the fact that even Somali elites are divided on Somaliland, and that creates space for Washington to consider whether its long-standing policy of deference to Mogadishu is still sustainable—especially at a time when Ethiopia and the UAE are openly strengthening ties with Hargeisa.”
The controversy underscores Somaliland’s growing confidence in asserting its case internationally. In recent months, Hargeisa has strengthened its outreach to Washington, Addis Ababa, and Abu Dhabi, framing its recognition bid as part of a larger realignment in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Yet the political impasse with Somalia remains as entrenched as ever. Mogadishu views any move toward recognition as an existential threat to Somalia’s territorial integrity, while Hargeisa insists its separation is irreversible. Roble’s remarks may have cracked the door open for debate—but they have also deepened divisions within Somali politics, with little sign of reconciliation on the horizon.
