Israel is signaling a new strategic direction, with high-level discussions on formally recognizing Somaliland. This potential move, driven by a major security report, aims to secure a critical ally in the Red Sea and counter Houthi threats, reshaping the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa
A new study released by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) has set off high-level discussions within the Israeli government over the possibility of formally recognizing Somaliland as an independent state.
According to analysts briefed on the report, the study argues that recognition could advance Israel’s wider security and intelligence strategy in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, where control of shipping routes and countering rival influence have become increasingly urgent priorities.
The INSS assessment highlights Somaliland’s long record of relative stability, its strategic ports along the Gulf of Aden, and its existing cooperation with regional security partners as factors that make it an attractive potential ally.
Israeli officials have not commented publicly, but the study has reportedly accelerated internal debate over whether deeper engagement—including diplomatic recognition—would bolster Israel’s position in a region central to Red Sea trade and maritime security.
A Strategic Calculus in the Red Sea
For Israel, the strategic imperative is clear. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a chokepoint at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, is a conduit for an estimated $700 billion in annual trade and 4 million barrels of oil each day. Since November 2023, Houthi attacks from Yemen have disrupted this vital corridor, effectively establishing a naval blockade against Israel and causing significant economic losses, particularly at the port of Eilat .
Recognizing Somaliland, which boasts a 460-mile coastline along the Gulf of Aden, would offer Israel a potential partner in securing this gateway. “Somaliland’s location places it at the center of efforts to secure one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors,” said a recent analysis from the Atlantic Council, which has explored the case for Israeli-Somaliland normalization.
Strengthened ties could provide Israel with “greater strategic depth in the Red Sea region,” offering opportunities for maritime security exercises and intelligence-sharing, potentially even including the establishment of an Israeli base on Somaliland soil .
This alignment would build on existing partnerships. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key Israeli ally since the Abraham Accords, has already invested $442 million in the expansion of Somaliland’s Berbera port and maintains a military base there.
A deeper Israeli engagement with Somaliland would thus reinforce a shared security architecture with the UAE and the United States, counterbalancing the influence of rival powers like Iran and Turkey .
Table: Key Strategic Factors Driving the Israel-Somaliland Discussion
| Factor | Significance for Israel | Current Regional Context |
| Maritime Security | Counters Houthi attacks and Iranian influence in a critical shipping lane. | Houthis have launched over 50 attacks on shipping, sinking one vessel and hijacking another since late 2023. |
| Geographic Position | Access to Somaliland’s coastline near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. | Nearly a third of global shipping passes through this corridor. |
| Alliance Synergy | Reinforces partnerships with the UAE and the US, which already have footholds in Somaliland. | The US has shown bipartisan interest in deepening ties with Hargeisa. |
Somaliland’s Pursuit of a Patron
For the Republic of Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, the prospect of relations with Israel represents a potential breakthrough in its decades-long quest for international recognition. Though it functions as a de facto state with its own government, currency, and security forces, no country has officially recognized its sovereignty .
“Somaliland, like any responsible government, considers its foreign relations through the lens of national interest, regional stability, and the values of its people,” Somaliland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdirahman Adam, stated in an April 2025 interview. “If those align, we are open to discussion with any nation” .
This pragmatic stance reflects Somaliland’s belief that engagement with a country like Israel could bolster its case for recognition by other Western powers, much as normalization with Israel paved the way for the United States to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara .
The geopolitical maneuvering in the Horn of Africa was further highlighted in March 2025, when the Somali federal government in Mogadishu—which considers Somaliland part of its territory—made a startling offer to the United States.
In a letter to President Donald Trump, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud offered the US “exclusive operational control” over strategic ports and airbases in Berbera and Bosaso. The move was widely seen as a desperate attempt to derail any potential US recognition of breakaway regions, but it backfired.
Somaliland immediately rejected the offer, with President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi’s spokesperson calling it a “clear political desperate attempt devoid of factual basis,” noting that the assets were under Somaliland’s jurisdiction .
A Path Fraught with Challenges
Despite the compelling strategic logic, the path to normalization is strewn with diplomatic obstacles. The African Union (AU) firmly upholds the territorial integrity of Somalia, and any move by Israel to recognize Somaliland would likely be condemned, potentially leading other AU members to reconsider their relations with Tel Aviv .
Mogadishu would inevitably push back. “They are offering this as a way of getting the US to recognize the legitimacy of the Somali state over these breakaway regions,” said Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, regarding Somalia’s port offer to the US.
Somalia has a history of imposing restrictions on nations that engage with Somaliland, having previously targeted Taiwan and the UAE after they opened representative offices or pursued economic agreements with Hargeisa.
Regional powers are also a factor. Turkey, a key ally of Somalia, would likely reiterate its support for Somali territorial integrity, while Iran could turn to its proxies, such as the Houthis, to threaten any emerging Israeli presence near the Yemeni coast .
A Phased Approach to a Potential Partnership
Experts suggest that Israel and Somaliland are most likely to pursue a phased engagement rather than an immediate announcement of full diplomatic relations. This would likely begin with the opening of liaison offices in Hargeisa and Tel Aviv, mirroring the approach taken by other nations like the UAE and the United States, which already maintain representative offices in Somaliland’s capital .
This initial step would formalize dialogue and be followed by an expansion of cooperation in low-profile, high-impact sectors such as agri-tech, water management, and healthcare. Such development initiatives would build capacity and goodwill while avoiding unnecessary politicization .
Ultimately, the success of this diplomatic gambit may hinge on broader regional dynamics. A de-escalation of the conflict in Gaza would make it easier for Somaliland’s leadership to justify engagement with Israel without risking domestic backlash .
Furthermore, should the United States decide to formally deepen its own ties with Somaliland, it would provide Israel with a green light to follow suit, transforming a bilateral opportunity into a consolidated strategic realignment in the Horn of Africa .
