Hargeisa, Somaliland — Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro will travel to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, on Tuesday for his first official visit since being elected, officials confirmed Monday, in a diplomatic mission that tests fragile regional relationships amid ongoing tensions over a maritime agreement and Ethiopia’s quest for sea access.
The two- to three-day visit follows an official invitation from the Ethiopian government and will feature high-level talks between Abdirahman Irro and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on bilateral relations and regional cooperation. Several Somaliland ministers have already arrived in Addis Ababa to prepare for the presidential meetings, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the arrangements.
The delegation includes ministers of foreign affairs, finance, public works, investment, and the presidency, signaling the broad agenda at stake.
This will be President Irro’s first visit to Ethiopia since his inauguration in November 2024 and takes place amid renewed focus on the Eritrean coast, regional alliances, and the fate of a maritime deal between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa.
Officials in Hargeisa and Addis Ababa confirmed that the talks will focus on trade, security cooperation, and infrastructure, including a potential revival of Ethiopia’s planned access to the Red Sea through Somaliland’s Berbera Port.
“This visit marks a defining moment in the evolution of Ethiopia–Somaliland relations,” said Rashid Abdi, a Nairobi-based Horn of Africa analyst. “Irro’s leadership signals continuity in engagement, but it also opens space for recalibration—especially after the turbulence of the past year.”
Shadow of a Controversial Agreement
The meeting unfolds under the shadow of the January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland’s former president, Muse Bihi Abdi—a deal that sparked regional uproar.
That agreement reportedly granted Ethiopia 20 kilometers of coastline near Berbera for a naval base in exchange for possible diplomatic recognition of Somaliland’s long-unrecognized independence. Somalia denounced the pact as “a violation of its sovereignty.”
In Mogadishu, the reaction was swift and furious. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud recalled his ambassador, declared the deal “null and void,” and warned that the agreement risked destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
“Abiy Ahmed’s move created a new fault line in an already fragile region,” said a Western diplomat familiar with the negotiations. “The Berbera MoU didn’t just anger Mogadishu—it alarmed every capital watching the competition for Red Sea influence.”
Sources indicate the Irro government intends to deprioritize the earlier agreement’s recognition clauses, instead pressing for fresh infrastructure and economic pacts that emphasize energy and connectivity.
“Somaliland’s leader is off to Ethiopia to pay respects at the funeral of the MoU that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed with his predecessor on January 1, 2024,” an Ethiopian source posted on X, adding that “Abdirahman Irro is instead expected to sign new economic deals, particularly for the planned Ogaden gas pipeline, since DP World’s modern Berbera Port sits reportedly less than 400 km away, compared to more than 700 km to Djibouti’s port.”
Ethiopia’s Existential Quest for the Sea
For Ethiopia, a nation of more than 120 million people and the world’s most populous landlocked country, the sea has become a national obsession. Prime Minister Abiy has called maritime access an “existential issue,” arguing that Ethiopia’s economic future depends on securing alternative ports beyond Djibouti, through which it currently channels over 90 percent of its trade.
A proposed $3 billion UAE-backed railway project linking Berbera to Addis Ababa via the border town of Tog Wajale is central to Ethiopia’s maritime strategy. The project—spearheaded by DP World—could turn Berbera into a regional logistics hub, offering Ethiopia a cheaper and shorter route to the Gulf of Aden.
“A favorable trade and transit agreement would be a game changer,” said a senior Somaliland commerce official. “Berbera could become for Ethiopia a gateway for global trade.”
Somaliland’s Balancing Act
For Somaliland, which has operated as an independent state since 1991 but lacks international recognition, the talks in Addis Ababa are equally critical. President Irro’s administration has sought to project a more pragmatic and economically focused diplomacy than that of his predecessor.
“By engaging Ethiopia and global partners, Irro is signaling that Somaliland is not merely a political question—it’s an emerging economic actor,” said Fatima Warsame, a regional economist based in Nairobi. “That narrative shift could be transformative.”
Yet, some in Somaliland view the trip with suspicion.
“If Ethiopia gains sea access without recognizing Somaliland, it will be a betrayal,” said one Hargeisa-based civil society advocate who requested anonymity. “We’ve waited 34 years for recognition. Selling that for trade incentives would be treason.”
Regional Chessboard
Irro’s visit follows a surprise one-day trip to Addis Ababa by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud just 24 hours earlier—an apparent attempt to dissuade Abiy from deepening ties with Somaliland.
“Abiy kept HSM busy touring the science museum most of the day,” quipped analyst Rashid Abdi, underscoring the behind-the-scenes maneuvering between Addis Ababa, Mogadishu, and Hargeisa.
Ethiopia, for its part, faces a delicate balancing act. It remains a major troop contributor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and maintains thousands of soldiers in the country under bilateral security agreements. Yet it also sees Somaliland as a strategic partner in counterterrorism and trade.
Somalia’s Own Calculations
Just two days before Irro’s arrival, President Hassan Sheikh held talks in Addis Ababa focusing on port access, regional security, and Egypt’s reported military footprint in central Somalia—a development that has raised alarm in Ethiopian circles.
According to Somali officials, Hassan offered Ethiopia potential port access through Somali territory under federal control, a proposal aimed at undercutting Addis Ababa’s interest in Berbera. Ethiopian officials have not confirmed whether the offer was formally discussed.
“Somalia is trying to regain initiative,” said Abdiwahid Ahmed, a political researcher at the Institute for Security Studies. “But Ethiopia has learned to diversify its partnerships—and Somaliland is too strategically positioned to ignore.”
The Stakes Ahead
The outcome of the Addis meetings could determine whether Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions and Somaliland’s recognition hopes can coexist—or collide.
The December 2024 Ankara Declaration, brokered by Turkey, briefly appeared to cool tensions, with both Ethiopia and Somalia agreeing to respect each other’s sovereignty. Yet, the accord notably omitted any reference to the Berbera MoU, leaving its fate ambiguous.
“Neither Addis nor Hargeisa has said the deal is off the table,” noted a European diplomat. “This week’s talks might clarify whether it’s being revived, revised, or quietly buried.”
For Irro, the Addis trip is both a diplomatic gamble and a political test at home.
“Somalilanders will judge him not by the handshakes or headlines,” said a Hargeisa-based journalist. “They’ll judge him by whether he comes back with dignity—or with a deal that sells out their sovereignty.”
Berbera’s Promise and Peril
Once a sleepy port town, Berbera has emerged as the centerpiece of Somaliland’s economic ambitions. A $442 million modernization project led by DP World transformed it into one of East Africa’s most efficient deep-water ports, with a 17-meter draft and capacity to handle half a million containers annually.
The World Bank’s 2024 Container Port Performance Index ranked Berbera ahead of Djibouti, underscoring its growing role as a logistics hub. The Berbera Economic Zone, modeled on Dubai’s Jebel Ali Free Zone, aims to attract regional manufacturers and exporters.
“Berbera is becoming more strategic as Red Sea tensions escalate,” said Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research. “Its success—or failure—will shape the Horn’s trade map for a generation.”
A Defining Visit
As Irro and Abiy meet behind closed doors in Addis Ababa, diplomats say both leaders are weighing the same question: how to pursue national interests without igniting regional instability.
“For Ethiopia, it’s about survival and sea access,” said analyst Rashid Abdi. “For Somaliland, it’s about recognition and respect. The line between the two is razor-thin.”
Whether this week’s talks mark the start of a new partnership—or the reopening of an old wound—will determine more than just the fate of a port. It may decide the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
This story was reported from Addis Ababa, Hargeisa, and Nairobi, with additional contributions from regional correspondents in Mogadishu and Dubai.
